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Property Crime Trends in La Verne, California: A Decade of Fluctuating Rates
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
La Verne, located in California, has experienced fluctuating property crime rates over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, total property crimes increased by 3.27%, rising from 643 to 664 incidents. During this same period, the population saw a modest decline of 0.54%, decreasing from 33,401 to 33,222 residents.
Burglary trends in the city have shown a notable decrease over time. In 2010, there were 130 burglaries reported, which dropped to 123 in 2022, representing a 5.38% decrease. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 people decreased from 3.89 in 2010 to 3.70 in 2022. Interestingly, despite this overall decline, the city's share of state burglaries increased from 0.07% in 2010 to 0.11% in 2022. This suggests that while burglaries have decreased locally, they may have decreased at a faster rate statewide.
Larceny theft, the most common property crime in the city, has shown an upward trend. Incidents increased from 477 in 2010 to 489 in 2022, a 2.52% rise. The rate per 1,000 people also increased slightly from 14.28 to 14.72 over this period. The city's contribution to state larceny theft figures remained relatively stable, moving from 0.09% in 2010 to 0.10% in 2022. This suggests that the increase in larceny theft is roughly in line with statewide trends.
Motor vehicle theft in the city has seen a significant increase. In 2010, there were 36 reported cases, which rose to 52 in 2022, a substantial 44.44% increase. The rate per 1,000 people increased from 1.08 to 1.57 during this period. Despite this local increase, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts remained relatively low, only growing from 0.03% to 0.03% between 2010 and 2022. This indicates that while motor vehicle theft has risen locally, it may be part of a broader statewide trend.
Arson cases in the city have fluctuated but show an overall decrease. From 3 cases in 2010 to 1 in 2022, there was a 66.67% decrease. The rate per 1,000 people dropped from 0.09 to 0.03. The city's contribution to state arson cases decreased from 0.05% to 0.02% during this period, suggesting a more significant local reduction compared to statewide trends.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a relationship between property crime trends and demographic changes. As the Hispanic population increased from 30% in 2013 to 36% in 2022, there was a corresponding rise in certain property crimes, particularly larceny theft and motor vehicle theft. Concurrently, the white population decreased from 52% to 45%, which may indicate shifting neighborhood dynamics affecting crime patterns.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we anticipate a continued slight increase in overall property crimes. Larceny theft and motor vehicle theft are expected to show the most growth, potentially reaching 520 and 70 incidents respectively by 2029. Burglary rates may stabilize around 120 incidents annually, while arson cases are likely to remain low, possibly averaging 1-2 cases per year.
In summary, La Verne has experienced mixed trends in property crime over the past decade. While burglary and arson have decreased, larceny theft and motor vehicle theft have increased. These changes appear to be influenced by demographic shifts and may reflect broader regional trends. As the city moves forward, addressing the rising rates of larceny theft and motor vehicle theft should be a priority for local law enforcement and community initiatives.
