Motor vehicle theft trends showed more volatility. There were 34 incidents in 2010, which decreased to a low of 9 in 2012 but then rose to 62 by 2022. This represents an 82.4% increase from 2010 to 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents increased from 1.31 in 2010 to 2.26 in 2022. Notably, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts rose from 0.26% in 2010 to 0.26% in 2022, suggesting a growing concern in this area relative to state trends.

Arson cases in the city have been relatively rare and inconsistent. In 2010, there were 2 reported arsons, and this number fluctuated between 0 and 4 cases annually, with 1 case reported in 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents remained low, ranging from 0 to 0.15. The city's share of state arsons varied widely, from 0% in some years to a high of 0.42% in 2011, indicating that arson is not a significant ongoing concern for the community.

Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong inverse relationship between median income and property crime rates. As the median income increased from $89,577 in 2013 to $103,570 in 2022, overall property crime rates decreased. This suggests that improved economic conditions may contribute to lower crime rates. Additionally, the slight decrease in the percentage of owner-occupied housing from 78% in 2013 to 77% in 2022 does not seem to have significantly impacted property crime trends.

Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (until 2029), we anticipate a continued overall decrease in property crimes, with potential fluctuations in specific categories. Burglary rates are expected to continue their downward trend, possibly reaching fewer than 20 incidents annually. Larceny-theft is projected to stabilize around 400 incidents per year. However, motor vehicle theft may continue to pose a challenge, with a potential increase to around 80-90 incidents annually if current trends persist.

In summary, Kirkwood has experienced a significant overall reduction in property crimes over the past decade, despite population growth. The most substantial improvements have been in burglary and larceny-theft rates, while motor vehicle theft has emerged as an area of growing concern. The city's economic growth, as evidenced by rising median incomes, appears to correlate with declining crime rates. These trends suggest that Kirkwood is becoming increasingly safe in terms of property crime, though continued vigilance and targeted strategies may be necessary to address specific areas such as motor vehicle theft.