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Property Crime Trends in Kirby, Texas: A Decade of Divergence Between Crime Rates and Population Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Kirby, located in Texas, has experienced fluctuating property crime rates over the years, alongside significant population growth. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes decreased by 19.53%, from 169 to 136 incidents. During this same period, the population grew by 17.07%, from 13,368 to 15,650 residents, indicating an overall improvement in property crime rates relative to population growth.
Burglary trends in the city have shown a substantial decline over the years. In 2010, there were 52 burglaries reported, which decreased to 11 in 2022, representing a 78.85% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 3.89 per 1,000 people in 2010 to 0.70 per 1,000 in 2022. The city's share of state burglaries has also decreased significantly, from 0.03% in 2010 to 0.01% in 2022. This downward trend suggests improved home security measures or more effective law enforcement strategies targeting burglaries.
Larceny-theft incidents have shown a less dramatic but still notable decrease. In 2010, there were 100 reported cases, which dropped to 80 in 2022, a 20% reduction. The rate per 1,000 people decreased from 7.48 in 2010 to 5.11 in 2022. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft incidents remained relatively stable, at 0.02% in both 2010 and 2022. This trend indicates a moderate improvement in preventing petty thefts and shoplifting within the community.
Motor vehicle theft, contrary to other property crimes, has seen an increase. In 2010, there were 17 reported cases, which rose to 45 in 2022, a 164.71% increase. The rate per 1,000 people increased from 1.27 in 2010 to 2.88 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts also increased from 0.03% to 0.05% during this period. This upward trend suggests a need for increased focus on vehicle security and targeted law enforcement efforts to combat auto theft.
Arson cases in the city have remained relatively low but volatile. In 2010, there were no reported arsons, while in 2022, there was 1 case. The highest number of arsons reported was 3 in 2021. The city's contribution to state arson cases has fluctuated, reaching a peak of 0.13% in 2021 before dropping to 0.05% in 2022. Given the low numbers, it's difficult to establish a clear trend, but vigilance in fire prevention and investigation remains important.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. There appears to be a moderate negative correlation between median income and property crime rates. As median income increased from $50,150 in 2013 to $54,450 in 2021, overall property crime rates tended to decrease. However, this correlation weakened in 2022 when median income dropped to $50,949 while property crimes slightly increased.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a potential continuation of the overall downward trend in total property crimes, with possible fluctuations. Burglaries are expected to remain low, potentially stabilizing around 10-15 cases annually. Larceny-theft may continue its gradual decline, possibly reaching around 70-75 cases per year. Motor vehicle theft presents the most concerning trend, with models suggesting a potential increase to 50-55 cases annually if current trends persist. Arson cases are likely to remain sporadic, with 0-2 cases expected annually.
In summary, Kirby has made significant strides in reducing overall property crime rates, particularly in burglaries and larceny-thefts, despite population growth. The most pressing concern is the rising trend in motor vehicle thefts, which warrants targeted intervention. The city's property crime landscape reflects a community that has become safer in many respects but faces evolving challenges, particularly in vehicle-related crimes.
