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Property Crime Trends in Kinston, Alabama: A Decade of Fluctuations and Economic Correlations
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Kinston, a town in Alabama, has experienced notable changes in property crime rates and population over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes increased by 146.67%, rising from 15 to 37 incidents. During the same period, the population grew by 5.24%, from 1,564 to 1,646 residents. This disproportionate increase in property crimes compared to population growth suggests a complex interplay of factors affecting the city's safety landscape.
Burglary trends in Kinston show a significant decrease over time. In 2010, there were 10 burglaries, which dropped to 7 in 2022, representing a 30% decrease. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 people decreased from 6.39 in 2010 to 4.25 in 2022. However, the city's share of state burglaries increased from 0.04% in 2010 to 0.06% in 2022, indicating that while local rates improved, they didn't keep pace with statewide reductions.
Larceny theft trends reveal a substantial increase in Kinston. The number of larceny thefts rose from 4 in 2010 to 28 in 2022, a 600% increase. The rate per 1,000 people jumped from 2.56 in 2010 to 17.01 in 2022. The city's percentage of state larceny thefts also increased significantly from 0.01% to 0.06% over this period. This sharp rise suggests a growing concern for petty theft within the community.
Motor vehicle theft in Kinston showed a moderate increase, doubling from 1 incident in 2010 to 2 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 people rose slightly from 0.64 to 1.21. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts increased from 0.02% to 0.03%, indicating a relatively stable situation compared to state trends but still a concern for local law enforcement.
Arson data in Kinston is limited, with no reported cases in most years. However, in 2022, there were 2 reported arsons, representing 0.38% of state arsons. This sudden appearance of arson cases warrants attention from local authorities, despite the small numbers involved.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong inverse relationship between median income and property crime rates in Kinston. As median income increased from $32,732 in 2013 to $43,035 in 2022, property crime rates fluctuated but generally trended downward from 27 incidents in 2014 to 16 in 2021, before rising again to 37 in 2022. This suggests that improving economic conditions may have contributed to reduced property crime rates until the most recent year.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years in Kinston, we anticipate a potential stabilization or slight decrease in overall property crime rates. This projection is based on the observed correlation with rising median incomes and assumes continued economic growth. However, the recent uptick in 2022 introduces some uncertainty into this forecast.
The most significant discoveries in Kinston's property crime landscape include the substantial decrease in burglaries, the alarming increase in larceny thefts, and the potential emergence of arson as a new concern. The inverse relationship between rising median incomes and overall property crime rates until 2022 suggests that economic factors play a crucial role in the city's crime dynamics. As Kinston continues to grow and develop, addressing the spike in larceny thefts while maintaining the positive trends in other areas will be key to ensuring community safety and well-being.
