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Property Crime Trends in Kimberly, Alabama: A Decade of Change and Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Kimberly, Alabama, presents an intriguing case study in property crime trends. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes fluctuated, with a notable increase from 19 in 2010 to 22 in 2022, representing a 15.79% rise. During this same period, the population grew significantly from 3,698 in 2010 to 4,583 in 2022, a 23.93% increase.
Burglary trends in the city have shown a marked decrease over time. In 2010, there were 4 burglaries, which dropped to just 2 in 2022, a 50% decrease. When considering population growth, the burglary rate per 1,000 people decreased from 1.08 in 2010 to 0.44 in 2022. The city's share of state burglaries remained relatively low, fluctuating between 0.01% and 0.04% from 2010 to 2022, with an anomalous spike to 0.24% in 2020. This overall downward trend in burglaries suggests improved home security measures or more effective law enforcement strategies.
Larceny-theft incidents have remained the most common property crime in the city. The number of larceny-thefts remained stable, with 15 cases in both 2010 and 2022. However, when accounting for population growth, the rate per 1,000 people decreased from 4.06 in 2010 to 3.27 in 2022. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft statistics has been consistently low, ranging from 0.01% to 0.03%, with an unusual increase to 0.9% in 2020. This stability in larceny-theft numbers, despite population growth, indicates that community-based crime prevention efforts may be effective.
Motor vehicle theft has shown a concerning upward trend. From no reported cases in 2010, the number increased to 5 in 2022. This translates to a rate increase from 0 to 1.09 per 1,000 people. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts also rose significantly, from 0% in 2010 to 0.07% in 2022, with a notable spike to 1.03% in 2020. This trend suggests a need for increased focus on vehicle security and targeted law enforcement efforts.
Arson data for the city is largely unavailable, with most years reporting zero incidents. This lack of data makes it difficult to draw meaningful conclusions about arson trends in the city.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. The rise in property crimes coincides with an increase in population density, which grew from 591 people per square mile in 2010 to 732 in 2022. Additionally, there appears to be a correlation between the increase in median income, which rose from $69,275 in 2013 to $83,621 in 2022, and the overall increase in property crimes. This could suggest that as the city became more affluent, it may have become a more attractive target for property crimes.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continued gradual increase in overall property crimes. Based on current trends, we might expect to see around 25-30 property crimes annually by 2029. Motor vehicle thefts are likely to continue their upward trajectory, potentially reaching 7-8 incidents per year. Burglaries may stabilize at their current low levels, while larceny-theft could see a slight increase to around 18-20 cases annually.
In summary, Kimberly has experienced a complex evolution in its property crime landscape. While burglaries have decreased and larceny-thefts have remained stable relative to population growth, the rise in motor vehicle thefts presents a new challenge. The correlation between increasing affluence and property crimes underscores the need for adaptive law enforcement strategies. As the city continues to grow and prosper, maintaining a focus on community-based crime prevention and targeted security measures will be crucial in managing and potentially reducing property crime rates in the coming years.
