Motor vehicle theft trends in the city present a more complex picture. While the number of incidents increased from 239 in 2010 to 419 in 2022, a 75.3% rise, the rate per 1,000 residents only increased from 1.9 to 2.6, a 36.8% increase when accounting for population growth. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts rose from 0.43% to 0.51%, indicating that this type of crime grew faster locally than the state average. This trend might suggest a need for targeted strategies to combat vehicle theft in the area.

Arson cases in the city fluctuated over the years but showed an overall decrease. From 36 incidents in 2010, the number dropped to 6 in 2022, an 83.3% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 0.28 to 0.04, a decrease of 85.7%. The city's contribution to state arson cases decreased from 0.85% to 0.27%, indicating a significant improvement relative to state trends. This reduction might be attributed to enhanced fire safety measures and more effective arson investigation and prevention strategies.

Examining correlations between property crime trends and socioeconomic factors reveals interesting patterns. As population density increased from 2,362 per square mile in 2010 to 2,913 in 2022, overall property crime rates decreased, suggesting that increased urbanization did not lead to higher crime rates. There appears to be a weak inverse correlation between median income and property crime rates. For instance, as median income rose from $48,066 in 2013 to $54,529 in 2022, property crime rates generally declined, although this relationship is not consistently strong throughout the period.

Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continuation of the overall downward trend, albeit at a slower rate. Burglary and larceny-theft are projected to decrease further, potentially reaching around 400 and 1,500 incidents respectively by 2029. Motor vehicle theft may stabilize or show a slight increase, potentially reaching around 450 incidents. Arson cases are expected to remain low, possibly fluctuating between 5 to 10 incidents annually.

In conclusion, Killeen has made significant strides in reducing property crime over the past decade, particularly in burglary and larceny-theft. The consistent decrease in crime rates, even as the population grew, speaks to the effectiveness of local law enforcement and community initiatives. While challenges remain, especially in addressing motor vehicle theft, the overall trend suggests a safer, more secure environment for residents. As the city continues to grow and evolve, maintaining these positive trends will be crucial for ensuring the continued well-being and prosperity of its community.