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Property Crime Trends in Kewanee, Illinois: A Decade of Decline
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Kewanee, located in Illinois, presents an intriguing case study in property crime trends. Over the period from 2010 to 2019, the city experienced fluctuations in total property crimes, with a notable decrease from 538 incidents in 2010 to 484 in 2019, representing a 10% reduction. This decline in property crime occurred against a backdrop of population decrease, with the city's population falling from 13,886 in 2010 to 13,357 in 2019, a 3.8% reduction.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a significant downward trend. In 2010, there were 76 burglaries, which decreased to 47 by 2019, a 38.2% reduction. When adjusted for population, this translates to a decrease from 5.47 burglaries per 1,000 residents in 2010 to 3.52 per 1,000 in 2019. Interestingly, while the number of burglaries decreased, the city's share of state burglaries increased from 0.14% in 2010 to 0.19% in 2019, suggesting that the city's burglary rate declined at a slower pace than the state average.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the city, showed some fluctuation but an overall decrease. In 2010, there were 455 larceny-theft incidents, which reduced to 431 by 2019, a 5.3% decrease. The rate per 1,000 residents changed from 32.77 in 2010 to 32.27 in 2019, indicating a relatively stable rate when adjusted for population decline. The city's share of state larceny-theft incidents increased from 0.27% to 0.31% over this period, suggesting that the city maintained a higher larceny-theft rate compared to the state average.
Motor vehicle theft in the city showed significant variability. From 7 incidents in 2010, it decreased to 1 in 2013, then rose to 25 in 2018, before dropping to 6 in 2019. This volatility is reflected in the rate per 1,000 residents, which ranged from 0.07 in 2013 to 1.86 in 2018. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts fluctuated accordingly, peaking at 0.16% in 2018 before falling to 0.04% in 2019.
Arson cases in the city remained relatively low but showed some fluctuation. From 2 incidents in 2010, it dropped to 0 in 2015-2017, then peaked at 6 in 2018 before decreasing to 1 in 2019. The rate per 1,000 residents ranged from 0 to 0.45. The city's share of state arson cases varied significantly, reaching a high of 0.56% in 2018 before dropping to 0.1% in 2019.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate inverse relationship between property crime rates and median income. As median income increased from $37,982 in 2013 to $40,024 in 2019, total property crimes decreased from 406 to 484. However, this correlation is not strong enough to suggest causation.
Applying predictive models based on the observed trends, it's projected that by 2029, Kewanee may see a further decrease in burglaries to around 35 incidents per year. Larceny-theft is expected to remain relatively stable at approximately 420 incidents annually. Motor vehicle theft and arson are more challenging to predict due to their volatility, but they may stabilize at around 8 and 2 incidents per year, respectively.
In conclusion, Kewanee has shown an overall improvement in property crime rates, particularly in burglaries, despite its declining population. The city's efforts in crime prevention appear to be yielding positive results, especially when compared to state-wide trends. However, the persistence of larceny-theft as the dominant property crime suggests that targeted strategies may be needed to address this specific issue in the coming years.
