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Property Crime Trends in Kernersville: A Decade of Fluctuations Amidst Population Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Kernersville, a town in North Carolina, has experienced notable changes in property crime rates alongside population growth over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes decreased by 6.1%, from 1,034 to 971 incidents. During this same period, the population grew by 12.2%, from 39,029 to 43,799 residents, indicating a decrease in the per capita crime rate.
Burglary trends in the city show a significant decline over time. In 2010, there were 158 burglaries, which decreased to 93 in 2022, representing a 41.1% reduction. When adjusted for population growth, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents fell from 4.05 to 2.12, a 47.5% decrease. The city's share of state burglaries fluctuated, ranging from 0.28% to 0.57%, with the most recent figure in 2022 at 0.38%. This downward trend in burglaries suggests improved home security measures or more effective law enforcement strategies.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the area, showed more variation. In 2010, there were 846 larceny-theft incidents, which decreased to 819 in 2022, a 3.2% reduction. However, when accounting for population growth, the rate per 1,000 residents decreased more significantly from 21.68 to 18.70, a 13.7% drop. The city's share of state larceny-thefts increased from 0.65% in 2010 to 0.68% in 2022, indicating that while local rates improved, they did so at a slower pace than the state average.
Motor vehicle theft trends reveal an increase over the observed period. In 2010, there were 30 motor vehicle thefts, which rose to 59 in 2022, representing a 96.7% increase. The rate per 1,000 residents increased from 0.77 to 1.35, a 75.3% rise. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts also increased from 0.28% to 0.41%. This trend is concerning and may indicate a need for targeted prevention strategies.
Arson incidents fluctuated over the years but showed a decrease overall. In 2010, there were 8 arson cases, which decreased to 6 in 2022, a 25% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 0.20 to 0.14, a 33.2% decrease. The city's share of state arsons decreased from 0.78% to 0.68%, suggesting that local arson prevention efforts may be more effective than the state average.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. As population density increased from 2,156 per square mile in 2010 to 2,419 in 2022, property crime rates generally decreased, suggesting that increased urbanization did not lead to higher crime rates. There appears to be a weak inverse correlation between median income and property crime rates, with income rising from $60,506 in 2013 to $66,748 in 2022 as overall property crime rates declined.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continuation of the overall decreasing trend in burglaries and larceny-thefts. However, motor vehicle thefts may continue to rise if current trends persist. Arson incidents are expected to remain relatively stable but at low levels.
In summary, Kernersville has shown resilience in managing property crime rates despite population growth. The significant reduction in burglaries and the modest decrease in larceny-thefts are positive indicators of improved community safety. However, the rising trend in motor vehicle thefts presents a challenge that may require targeted interventions. These trends, coupled with demographic changes, suggest that the town is evolving in its approach to crime prevention and community development.
