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Property Crime Trends in Kerman: A Decade of Significant Decline
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Kerman, located in California, has experienced significant changes in its property crime landscape over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes decreased by 64%, from 681 to 245 incidents. This substantial reduction occurred alongside a population growth of 17.6%, from 13,829 to 16,269 residents during the same period.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a notable downward trend. In 2010, there were 172 burglaries, which dropped to 34 in 2022, representing an 80.2% decrease. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 12.4 per 1,000 people in 2010 to 2.1 per 1,000 in 2022. The city's share of state burglaries fluctuated but generally decreased, from 0.09% in 2010 to 0.03% in 2022. This significant reduction in burglaries, outpacing population growth, suggests improved security measures or shifts in criminal behavior within the community.
Larceny theft also experienced a substantial decline. In 2010, there were 371 incidents, which decreased to 170 in 2022, a 54.2% reduction. The rate per 1,000 people dropped from 26.8 in 2010 to 10.5 in 2022. The city's percentage of state larceny thefts remained relatively stable, hovering around 0.04-0.05% throughout most of the period, with a slight decrease to 0.03% in 2022. This trend indicates that the city's efforts to combat petty theft have been largely successful, maintaining pace with or exceeding statewide improvements.
Motor vehicle theft in the city showed significant fluctuations but an overall downward trend. From 138 incidents in 2010, it decreased to 41 in 2022, a 70.3% reduction. The rate per 1,000 people fell from 10 in 2010 to 2.5 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts decreased from 0.11% in 2010 to 0.03% in 2022, indicating that local efforts to prevent this crime have been particularly effective compared to statewide trends.
Arson cases in the city were relatively rare, with the highest reported number being 3 incidents in 2012. Many years recorded zero arson cases, including 2022. The city's contribution to state arson cases remained minimal, never exceeding 0.05% when incidents occurred. This suggests that arson is not a significant concern for the community.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong inverse relationship between the Hispanic population percentage and property crime rates. As the Hispanic population increased from 72% in 2013 to 82% in 2022, overall property crime rates declined. Additionally, there seems to be a correlation between decreasing homeownership rates (from 57% in 2013 to 48% in 2022) and reduced property crime, though this relationship may be coincidental rather than causal.
Applying predictive models based on the observed trends, it's projected that by 2029 (five years from now), property crime rates in Kerman could potentially decrease further by 15-20%. This would result in approximately 200-210 total property crimes annually, assuming current trends and interventions remain consistent.
In summary, Kerman has made remarkable progress in reducing property crime rates across all categories over the past decade, despite population growth. The most significant reductions were seen in burglary and motor vehicle theft, with larceny theft also showing substantial improvement. These trends, coupled with demographic shifts, suggest a changing urban landscape with potentially improved community engagement and law enforcement strategies. As the city continues to evolve, maintaining these positive trends will be crucial for ensuring the safety and well-being of its residents.
