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Property Crime Trends in Kamiah, Idaho: A Study of Fluctuations in a Small City
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Kamiah, located in Idaho, presents an interesting case study in property crime trends. From 2010 to 2017, the city experienced fluctuations in total property crimes, with a notable peak of 31 incidents in 2016, representing a 158.3% increase from the 12 incidents reported in 2010. During this same period, the population saw modest growth, increasing from 1,925 in 2010 to 1,962 in 2017, a 1.9% rise.
Burglary trends in the city showed significant volatility. In 2010, there was only 1 reported burglary, which increased to 15 cases in 2014 and 2016, representing a 1400% increase. This translates to a rise from 0.52 burglaries per 1,000 people in 2010 to 7.44 per 1,000 in 2016. The city's share of state burglaries also increased dramatically, from 0.02% in 2010 to 0.35% in 2016. This suggests that while burglary rates fluctuated, they became a more significant issue for the city relative to the state.
Larceny-theft incidents showed less dramatic but still noteworthy changes. From 11 cases in 2010, the number peaked at 19 in 2011 before declining to 3 in 2017. This represents a 72.7% decrease over the entire period. The rate per 1,000 people dropped from 5.71 in 2010 to 1.53 in 2017. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft cases fluctuated, peaking at 0.11% in 2011 before falling to 0.02% in 2017, indicating a relative improvement in this category compared to state trends.
Motor vehicle theft showed an intriguing pattern. There were no reported cases in 2010 and 2011, but the number rose to 8 in 2015, before settling at 3 in 2017. This translates to an increase from 0 to 1.53 thefts per 1,000 people. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts peaked at 0.6% in 2015, a significant figure for a small city, suggesting a temporary but notable issue with this type of crime.
Arson data was consistently reported as zero incidents from 2010 to 2017, indicating that this particular crime was not a significant concern for the city during this period.
When examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate inverse relationship between property crime rates and population density. As the population density decreased from 1,753 per square mile in 2010 to 1,787 in 2017, property crimes showed an overall increasing trend, peaking in 2016 before a sharp decline in 2017. There's also a potential correlation with median income, which increased from $30,002 in 2013 to $35,112 in 2017, coinciding with the eventual decrease in property crimes by 2017.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends, it's estimated that by 2029, Kamiah may see a stabilization or slight decrease in property crime rates. This prediction is based on the observed downward trend in the later years of the data set and the correlations with improving economic indicators.
In summary, Kamiah experienced significant fluctuations in property crime rates between 2010 and 2017, with burglary and motor vehicle theft showing the most dramatic changes. The city's contribution to state crime rates in these categories also fluctuated notably. The inverse relationship between crime rates and population density, along with the potential positive impact of rising median incomes, suggests that continued economic improvement and community engagement could play crucial roles in maintaining or further reducing property crime rates in the future.
