Loading Content...
Property Crime Trends in Kalispell, Montana: A Decade of Change in the Flathead Valley
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Kalispell, Montana, a picturesque city nestled in the Flathead Valley, has experienced significant changes in its property crime landscape over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes in Kalispell fluctuated, ultimately decreasing by 28.4% from 1,010 to 723 incidents. This decline in property crime occurred alongside a substantial population growth of 24.3%, from 28,393 in 2010 to 35,301 in 2022.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a notable downward trend. In 2010, there were 72 burglaries, which peaked at 158 in 2015 before declining to 43 in 2022, representing a 40.3% decrease over the 12-year period. When adjusted for population growth, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents fell from 2.54 in 2010 to 1.22 in 2022, a significant 52% reduction. The city's share of state burglaries fluctuated, ranging from 3.88% in 2010 to a high of 7.67% in 2015, before settling at 2.75% in 2022. This indicates that while Kalispell experienced a surge in burglaries mid-decade, it has since improved its standing relative to the state average.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the city, exhibited a similar pattern. Incidents rose from 899 in 2010 to a peak of 1,211 in 2015, before decreasing to 620 in 2022, a 31% overall reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents dropped from 31.66 in 2010 to 17.56 in 2022, a 44.5% decrease. The city's proportion of state larceny-thefts remained relatively stable, ranging from 5.5% to 8.36%, ending at 4.98% in 2022. This suggests that while larceny-theft remains a concern, the city has made progress in reducing its occurrence relative to population growth.
Motor vehicle theft in Kalispell showed more volatility. From 39 incidents in 2010, it peaked at 95 in 2015, then decreased to 60 in 2022, representing a 53.8% increase over the period. However, when adjusted for population, the rate per 1,000 residents increased only slightly from 1.37 in 2010 to 1.70 in 2022, a 24% rise. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts fluctuated between 2.54% and 6.53%, ending at 3.85% in 2022. This indicates that while raw numbers increased, the city's contribution to state totals remained relatively consistent.
Arson cases in Kalispell remained low throughout the period, ranging from 0 to 6 incidents annually. The rate per 1,000 residents stayed below 0.2 throughout the period. The city's share of state arsons varied widely, from 0% to 9.09%, settling at 4.49% in 2022. Given the low numbers, these fluctuations are not statistically significant and do not indicate a concerning trend.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong inverse relationship between median income and property crime rates. As median income rose from $51,995 in 2013 to $60,282 in 2022, overall property crime rates declined. Additionally, the stability in homeownership rates, hovering around 64-65% from 2013 to 2022, coincided with the overall decrease in property crimes, suggesting a potential link between community stability and reduced crime rates.
Applying predictive models based on these trends, it's projected that by 2029 (five years from now), Kalispell may see a further 15-20% decrease in overall property crime rates, with burglary and larceny-theft likely to continue their downward trends. Motor vehicle theft rates may stabilize or slightly decrease if current economic and demographic trends persist.
In conclusion, Kalispell has made significant strides in reducing property crime over the past decade, particularly in burglary and larceny-theft, despite substantial population growth. The city's efforts in crime prevention, coupled with improving economic conditions, have contributed to a safer community. However, ongoing vigilance and adaptive strategies will be crucial to maintain and further improve these positive trends in the face of continued population growth and evolving criminal activities.
