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Property Crime Trends in Jourdanton, Texas: A Decade of Fluctuations and Improvements
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Jourdanton, located in Texas, has experienced significant fluctuations in property crime rates over the past decade, alongside notable population growth. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes decreased from 38 to 23, representing a 39.5% reduction. During the same period, the population grew from 4,547 to 5,197, an increase of 14.3%.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a general downward trend. In 2010, there were 13 burglaries, which decreased to 5 in 2022. This represents a 61.5% reduction over 12 years. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 2.86 per 1,000 people in 2010 to 0.96 per 1,000 in 2022. The city's contribution to state-wide burglaries remained relatively low, fluctuating between 0% and 0.01% of the state total. This substantial decrease in burglaries, despite population growth, suggests improved security measures or changes in local crime dynamics.
Larceny theft trends have been more volatile. The number of incidents dropped from 23 in 2010 to 11 in 2022, a 52.2% decrease. The rate per 1,000 people fell from 5.06 in 2010 to 2.12 in 2022. The city's share of state-wide larceny thefts remained minimal, consistently at or below 0.01%. The significant reduction in larceny thefts, even as the population grew, indicates potential improvements in property protection or community vigilance.
Motor vehicle theft showed an increase over time. From 2 incidents in 2010, it rose to 7 in 2022, a 250% increase. The rate per 1,000 people increased from 0.44 in 2010 to 1.35 in 2022. The city's contribution to state-wide motor vehicle thefts grew from 0% to 0.01%. This upward trend, contrasting with the decreases in other property crimes, may suggest a specific challenge in vehicle security or a shift in criminal focus.
Arson cases have been rare and sporadic. There was 1 case each in 2010, 2011, and 2022, with no reported cases in between. The rate per 1,000 people was 0.22 in 2010 and 0.19 in 2022. The city's contribution to state-wide arson cases fluctuated between 0% and 0.05%. The infrequency of arson cases makes it difficult to discern a clear trend, but it remains a relatively uncommon crime in the city.
A notable correlation exists between property crime trends and population density. As the population density increased from 1,268 per square mile in 2010 to 1,449 in 2022, there was a general decrease in overall property crimes. This suggests that the growing urbanization might have contributed to improved security measures or community awareness.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we anticipate a potential stabilization or slight increase in overall property crimes. Burglaries and larceny thefts are expected to remain relatively low, while motor vehicle thefts may continue their upward trend unless targeted interventions are implemented.
In conclusion, Jourdanton has demonstrated resilience in managing property crimes despite population growth. The significant reductions in burglaries and larceny thefts are particularly noteworthy. However, the rise in motor vehicle thefts presents a challenge that may require focused attention. As the city continues to grow, maintaining these positive trends while addressing emerging issues will be crucial for ensuring community safety and well-being.
