Larceny-theft cases also demonstrated a declining trend. From 13 incidents in 2010, the number fluctuated but ultimately decreased to 6 by 2016. The rate per 1,000 residents for larceny-theft dropped from 4.38 in 2010 to 1.74 in 2016. Similar to burglary, the city's contribution to state larceny-theft statistics remained at 0%, suggesting a relatively low impact on overall state crime figures.

Motor vehicle theft in Johnson City has been rare, with only 1 incident reported in 2010 and 1 in 2015. In other years, there were no reported cases. The rate per 1,000 residents for motor vehicle theft was 0.34 in 2010 and 0.31 in 2015, with 0 in other years. Again, the percentage of state motor vehicle thefts attributed to the city was consistently 0%.

Arson cases were not reported in Johnson City during the period for which data is available. This absence of arson incidents suggests that it is not a significant concern for the community.

Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. As the population density increased from 1,668 per square mile in 2010 to 1,941 in 2016, property crimes decreased. This inverse relationship suggests that increased population density may have contributed to improved community vigilance or law enforcement effectiveness.

The median income in Johnson City rose from $54,179 in 2013 to $63,027 in 2016, coinciding with the decrease in property crimes. This positive correlation between rising incomes and declining crime rates could indicate improved economic conditions leading to reduced property crime motivations.

Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a potential continuation of the downward trend, assuming current socioeconomic conditions persist. However, it's important to note that small fluctuations in a city of this size can have significant percentage impacts on crime statistics.

In summary, Johnson City has experienced a notable decrease in property crimes from 2010 to 2016, despite population growth. The most significant reductions were seen in burglary and larceny-theft, while motor vehicle theft remained rare and arson non-existent. These trends, coupled with increasing median income and population density, paint a picture of a community that has become safer over time. The city's minimal impact on state crime statistics further underscores the localized nature of these improvements, suggesting effective local strategies in crime prevention and community development.