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Property Crime Trends in Jemison, Alabama: A Decade of Decline Amid Population Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Jemison, Alabama, presents an intriguing case study in property crime trends. Over the period from 2010 to 2022, the city experienced a significant decrease in total property crimes, dropping from 114 in 2010 to 69 in 2022, representing a 39.5% reduction. This decline occurred alongside population fluctuations, with the population increasing from 10,087 in 2010 to 10,527 in 2022, a 4.4% growth.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a notable downward trend. In 2010, there were 7 burglaries reported, which peaked at 52 in 2012 before drastically reducing to 14 in 2022. This represents a 73.1% decrease from the 2012 peak. When considering population, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 0.69 in 2010 to 1.33 in 2022, despite the population increase. Interestingly, the city's contribution to state-wide burglaries increased from 0.03% in 2010 to 0.12% in 2022, suggesting that while local rates improved, they did so at a slower pace than the state average.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the city, also showed a significant decline. From 96 incidents in 2010, it dropped to 46 in 2022, a 52.1% decrease. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 9.52 in 2010 to 4.37 in 2022, indicating a substantial improvement in public safety regarding this crime category. The city's contribution to state-wide larceny-theft decreased slightly from 0.13% in 2010 to 0.10% in 2022, suggesting that local improvements were somewhat in line with state-wide trends.
Motor vehicle theft in the city fluctuated over the years but ultimately showed a decrease. From 11 incidents in 2010, it dropped to 9 in 2022, an 18.2% decrease. The rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 1.09 in 2010 to 0.86 in 2022. However, the city's contribution to state-wide motor vehicle theft decreased from 0.18% in 2010 to 0.13% in 2022, indicating that improvements in this area were less pronounced than in other parts of the state.
Regarding arson, the data is limited, with only two years reporting figures (0 incidents in both 2011 and 2022). This lack of data makes it challenging to draw meaningful conclusions about arson trends in the city.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. The decrease in property crimes coincided with an increase in median income, rising from $45,463 in 2013 to $55,815 in 2022. This suggests a potential link between improving economic conditions and reduced property crime rates. Additionally, the percentage of owner-occupied housing increased slightly from 79% in 2013 to 81% in 2022, which may have contributed to the decrease in property crimes, as homeownership is often associated with increased community stability.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continuation of the overall downward trend. Based on the historical data, we can project that total property crimes may decrease further to around 55-60 incidents per year by 2029. This forecast assumes that current socioeconomic trends and law enforcement strategies remain consistent.
In summary, Jemison has made significant strides in reducing property crime rates across most categories between 2010 and 2022, despite population growth. The most notable improvements were seen in burglary and larceny-theft rates. These positive trends, coupled with rising median incomes and homeownership rates, paint a picture of a city that has effectively addressed property crime issues. As the city continues to grow and develop, maintaining these positive trends will be crucial for ensuring the ongoing safety and well-being of its residents.
