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Property Crime Trends in Jasper, Alabama: A Decade of Fluctuations and Economic Correlation
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Jasper, located in Alabama, presents an intriguing case study in property crime trends. Over the years from 2010 to 2022, the city experienced fluctuations in total property crimes, with a notable decrease from 1,035 incidents in 2018 to 677 in 2022, representing a 34.6% reduction. During this same period, the population showed a slight increase from 25,864 in 2018 to 28,138 in 2022, a growth of 8.8%.
Burglary trends in the city have shown a significant decline over time. In 2011, there were 206 reported burglaries, which decreased to 174 by 2022, a 15.5% reduction. When considering population trends, the burglary rate per 1,000 people dropped from 7.39 in 2011 to 6.18 in 2022. Interestingly, while the number of burglaries decreased, the city's percentage of state burglaries increased from 0.56% in 2011 to 1.53% in 2022. This suggests that while the city improved its burglary situation, it outperformed the state average in this regard.
Larceny theft, the most common property crime in the city, showed a substantial decrease over the years. In 2011, there were 755 reported larceny thefts, which declined to 443 in 2022, a 41.3% reduction. The larceny theft rate per 1,000 people also decreased from 27.1 in 2011 to 15.7 in 2022. The city's share of state larceny thefts fluctuated but ultimately increased slightly from 0.84% in 2011 to 0.95% in 2022, indicating that the city's improvement in this area was somewhat in line with state trends.
Motor vehicle theft trends have been more volatile. In 2011, there were 58 reported motor vehicle thefts, which increased slightly to 60 in 2022. However, when adjusted for population, the rate per 1,000 people remained relatively stable, changing from 2.08 in 2011 to 2.13 in 2022. The city's percentage of state motor vehicle thefts increased from 0.69% in 2011 to 0.9% in 2022, suggesting that this type of crime became relatively more prevalent in the city compared to the state average.
Arson data for the city is limited, with only two years of reported incidents. In 2021, there was 1 reported case of arson, which increased to 2 cases in 2022. This represents a 100% increase, though the small numbers make it difficult to draw significant conclusions. The arson rate per 1,000 people increased from 0.036 in 2021 to 0.071 in 2022. The city's share of state arsons decreased from 0.76% in 2021 to 0.38% in 2022, indicating that arson remains a relatively rare occurrence in the city compared to state levels.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and other factors reveals some interesting patterns. There appears to be a moderate negative correlation between median income and property crime rates. As the median income increased from $46,840 in 2013 to $52,865 in 2022, overall property crime rates tended to decrease. Additionally, there seems to be a weak positive correlation between population density and property crime rates, with both showing general declines over the observed period.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continued gradual decline in overall property crime rates. Burglary and larceny theft are expected to continue their downward trends, while motor vehicle theft may stabilize or show a slight increase. Arson incidents are projected to remain low but may fluctuate due to the small number of occurrences.
In summary, Jasper has shown overall improvement in property crime rates over the past decade, particularly in burglary and larceny theft. The city's performance relative to state averages has been mixed, with some crime categories showing better improvement than state trends. The relationship between rising median income and declining property crime rates suggests that economic factors may play a role in the city's crime landscape. As the city continues to grow and evolve, maintaining focus on economic development and community-based crime prevention strategies may help sustain and further improve these positive trends in property crime reduction.
