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Property Crime Trends in Ithaca: A Decade of Shifts in University City
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Ithaca, New York, a vibrant college town home to Cornell University, has experienced notable fluctuations in property crime rates over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes increased by 4.2%, from 1,143 to 1,191. During this same period, the population grew by 6.9%, from 24,427 to 26,103 residents, indicating a complex relationship between population growth and crime rates.
Burglary trends in the city have shown significant volatility. In 2010, there were 152 burglaries, which increased to 177 in 2012 before dropping sharply to 56 in 2019. However, by 2022, burglaries surged to 185, marking a 21.7% increase from 2010 levels. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents rose from 6.22 in 2010 to 7.09 in 2022. Notably, the city's share of state burglaries increased dramatically from 0.38% in 2010 to 0.81% in 2022, suggesting a growing concentration of burglary incidents relative to state trends.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the area, showed a more stable trend. In 2010, there were 963 larceny-thefts, which increased to 1,033 in 2012 before declining to 768 in 2019. By 2022, the number rose again to 983, representing a 2.1% increase from 2010. The rate per 1,000 residents decreased slightly from 39.42 in 2010 to 37.66 in 2022, indicating a relatively consistent incidence when accounting for population growth. The city's share of state larceny-thefts decreased from 0.55% in 2010 to 0.51% in 2022, suggesting a slight improvement relative to state trends.
Motor vehicle theft in the city has remained relatively low but showed an upward trend. In 2010, there were 28 motor vehicle thefts, which decreased to 16 in 2020 before rising to 23 in 2022. This represents a 17.9% decrease from 2010 to 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 1.15 in 2010 to 0.88 in 2022. However, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts decreased from 0.18% in 2010 to 0.11% in 2022, indicating that this type of crime grew at a slower rate compared to state levels.
Arson data shows a concerning upward trend, albeit with low absolute numbers. From no reported arsons in 2010, the number increased to 3 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents rose from 0 to 0.11 over this period. More alarmingly, the city's share of state arsons increased from 0% in 2010 to 0.65% in 2022, suggesting a disproportionate growth in arson incidents compared to state trends.
Examining correlations between crime trends and demographic factors reveals interesting patterns. The increase in property crimes, particularly burglaries, appears to have a moderate inverse correlation with the declining percentage of owner-occupied housing, which decreased from 29% in 2013 to 27% in 2022. This suggests that a lower rate of homeownership might be associated with higher property crime rates. Additionally, there seems to be a weak positive correlation between the slight decrease in the Asian population (from 20% in 2013 to 17% in 2022) and the overall increase in property crimes, though this relationship requires further investigation to establish causality.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (until 2029) suggests a potential continuation of the upward trend in burglaries and arsons, while larceny-theft and motor vehicle theft may stabilize or show slight decreases. The models predict that by 2029, burglaries could increase by approximately 15-20%, arsons might double from their 2022 levels, larceny-theft could remain within 5% of 2022 figures, and motor vehicle theft might decrease by 10-15%.
In conclusion, Ithaca's property crime landscape presents a mixed picture, with concerning increases in burglaries and arsons offset by relative stability in larceny-theft and decreases in motor vehicle theft. The city's changing demographics and housing patterns appear to play a role in these trends. As Ithaca continues to evolve, addressing the root causes of property crimes, particularly burglaries and arsons, will be crucial for maintaining community safety and quality of life.
