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Property Crime Trends in Inglis, Florida: A Small Town's Surprising Decline
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Inglis, located in Florida, presents an interesting case study in property crime trends over recent years. From 2010 to 2012, the total number of property crimes decreased by 30.56%, from 72 to 50 incidents, while the population declined by 9.72% during the same period. This small town of just 3.41 square miles has experienced fluctuations in both crime rates and population, warranting a closer examination of its property crime dynamics.
Burglary incidents in the city showed a significant decline from 23 cases in 2010 to 10 cases in 2012, representing a 56.52% decrease. When adjusted for population changes, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents fell from 7.56 in 2010 to 3.64 in 2012, a 51.85% reduction. Interestingly, while the number of burglaries decreased, the city's share of state burglaries remained relatively stable, decreasing slightly from 0.03% in 2010 to 0.01% in 2012. This suggests that while the city improved its burglary situation, the change was somewhat in line with statewide trends.
Larceny-theft cases also showed a downward trend, decreasing from 48 incidents in 2010 to 39 in 2012, an 18.75% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 15.77 to 14.19, a 10.02% drop. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft statistics remained constant at 0.01% throughout this period, indicating that the local trend mirrored the state's overall pattern for this type of crime.
Motor vehicle theft remained consistently low, with only one incident reported each year from 2010 to 2012. However, due to the population decrease, the rate per 1,000 residents slightly increased from 0.33 to 0.36, a 9.09% rise. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts remained at a negligible level, consistently reported as 0.00% of the state total.
Arson cases showed an unusual pattern, with no incidents in 2010 and 2012, but two cases reported in 2011. This spike in 2011 resulted in a rate of 0.70 arsons per 1,000 residents and represented 0.18% of the state's arson cases for that year. The volatility in arson statistics may be attributed to the small population size, where individual incidents can significantly impact percentages.
A strong correlation appears to exist between the overall decline in property crimes and the city's decreasing population density. As the population density fell from 891 people per square mile in 2010 to 804 in 2012, property crimes decreased correspondingly. This suggests that the reduced population pressure may have contributed to lower crime rates.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a potential stabilization or slight increase in property crime rates. This projection is based on the recent population growth observed from 2019 to 2022, where the population increased from 2,970 to 3,164. If this growth trend continues, it may lead to a marginal uptick in property crimes, potentially reversing the declining trend observed from 2010 to 2012.
In summary, Inglis has experienced a notable decrease in property crimes from 2010 to 2012, particularly in burglaries and larceny-thefts. This reduction occurred alongside a declining population, suggesting a possible correlation between population density and crime rates. However, the recent population growth observed up to 2022 may influence future crime trends. As the city continues to evolve, monitoring these trends will be crucial for maintaining public safety and understanding the dynamics of property crime in small, rural communities like Inglis.
