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Property Crime Trends in Huntsville, Missouri: A Decade of Significant Decline
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Huntsville, Missouri, has experienced a remarkable decline in property crime rates over the past decade. From 2010 to 2019, the total number of property crimes in this small city fluctuated significantly, reaching a peak of 28 incidents in 2012 before dropping to just 3 incidents in both 2018 and 2019. This represents an impressive 89.3% decrease in property crimes over this period. During the same timeframe, Huntsville's population saw a modest decrease of 3.6%, from 2,959 residents in 2010 to 2,852 in 2019.
Burglary trends in Huntsville demonstrate considerable variability. Starting with 1 burglary in 2010, the number increased dramatically to 9 in 2012, an 800% rise. However, by 2019, burglaries had decreased to zero. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate peaked at 3.09 per 1,000 residents in 2012 and fell to 0 by 2019. Huntsville's contribution to state burglaries fluctuated, reaching a high of 0.03% in 2012 before dropping to 0% in 2019. This trend suggests improved home security measures or more effective law enforcement strategies over time.
Larceny-theft incidents in Huntsville also showed significant changes. From 10 cases in 2010, the number rose to 19 in 2012 (a 90% increase), before declining to just 3 cases in 2019 (a 70% decrease from 2010). The rate per 1,000 residents peaked at 6.53 in 2012 and fell to 1.05 in 2019. The city's share of state larceny-theft cases ranged from 0.02% in 2012 to 0% in 2019, indicating a disproportionate improvement compared to state trends.
Motor vehicle theft in Huntsville remained low throughout the period. There was 1 case in 2010, and no reported cases from 2012 to 2019. This translates to a rate of 0.34 per 1,000 residents in 2010, dropping to 0 thereafter. The city's contribution to state motor vehicle theft cases was minimal, at 0.01% in 2010 and 0% in subsequent years, suggesting effective local prevention measures or possibly a shift in criminal activities.
Arson cases were consistently reported as 0 throughout the observed period, from 2010 to 2019. This indicates either an absence of arson incidents or potential underreporting. The city's contribution to state arson cases remained at 0% throughout, suggesting that arson was not a significant concern in this community.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate inverse relationship between property crime rates and median income in Huntsville. As median income increased from $42,061 in 2013 to $52,502 in 2019, property crimes decreased from 28 in 2012 to 3 in 2019. Similarly, there's a potential correlation with home ownership rates, which increased from 71% in 2013 to 81% in 2019, coinciding with the decrease in property crimes. This suggests that improved economic conditions and higher stakes in property ownership might contribute to reduced property crime rates.
Applying predictive models based on the observed trends, we can forecast that property crime rates in Huntsville are likely to remain low or potentially decrease further over the next five years (until 2029). The city may see property crimes stabilize at around 2-4 incidents per year, assuming current socioeconomic trends continue.
In conclusion, Huntsville has demonstrated a significant overall reduction in property crimes from 2010 to 2019, with notable decreases in burglaries and larceny-theft incidents. The absence of motor vehicle thefts and arson cases in recent years is particularly promising. These trends, coupled with rising median incomes and home ownership rates, suggest a positive trajectory for community safety and economic stability in Huntsville. As the city moves forward, maintaining these favorable conditions will be crucial in sustaining the low property crime rates observed in recent years.
