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Property Crime Trends in Horseshoe Bay, Texas: A Study of Decline Amid Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Horseshoe Bay, located in Texas, presents an interesting case study in property crime trends. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes in the city fluctuated significantly, starting at 67 in 2010 and ending at 49 in 2022, representing a 26.87% decrease. During this same period, the population grew from 4,039 to 4,875, a 20.70% increase, creating a complex dynamic between crime rates and population growth.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a notable decline over the years. In 2010, there were 16 burglaries, which dropped to 12 by 2022, a 25% decrease. When considering population growth, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 3.96 in 2010 to 2.46 in 2022, a 37.88% reduction. The city's share of state burglaries remained relatively stable, hovering around 0.01% throughout most of the period, with a slight increase to 0.02% in 2022. This trend suggests that while burglaries have decreased overall, the city's contribution to state burglary statistics has remained consistently low.
Larceny theft trends show a more pronounced decrease. In 2010, there were 48 larceny thefts, which reduced to 35 by 2022, a 27.08% decrease. The rate per 1,000 residents dropped from 11.88 in 2010 to 7.18 in 2022, a significant 39.56% reduction. The city's share of state larceny thefts remained steady at 0.01% throughout most of the period, indicating that the local decrease in larceny thefts is consistent with statewide trends.
Motor vehicle theft in the city has shown fluctuations but an overall decrease. From 3 incidents in 2010, it dropped to 2 in 2022, a 33.33% decrease. The rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 0.74 in 2010 to 0.41 in 2022, a 44.59% reduction. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts remained minimal, consistently at or below 0.01%, suggesting that this type of crime has a relatively small impact on the city's overall crime profile.
Arson cases in Horseshoe Bay have been consistently reported as zero from 2010 to 2022, indicating that this particular crime is not a significant concern for the community. The absence of arson cases suggests effective fire prevention measures or possibly underreporting of such incidents.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. There appears to be a weak negative correlation between median income and property crime rates. For instance, as the median income increased from $83,345 in 2013 to $88,686 in 2021, property crimes generally decreased from 75 in 2013 to 5 in 2021. However, this correlation is not consistent throughout the entire period, as evidenced by the spike in property crimes to 49 in 2022 despite a median income of $82,682.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a potential stabilization or slight increase in property crime rates. Based on the fluctuating nature of the data, particularly the recent increase from 5 incidents in 2021 to 49 in 2022, it's projected that property crimes may average around 30-40 incidents annually over the next five years. This forecast takes into account the city's growing population and historical crime patterns.
In summary, Horseshoe Bay has experienced a general decline in property crime rates over the past decade, with some fluctuations. The most significant reductions were seen in larceny theft and burglary rates, while motor vehicle theft remained low and arson was non-existent. These trends, coupled with the city's growing population and relatively stable economic indicators, suggest that Horseshoe Bay has made progress in maintaining public safety. However, the recent uptick in property crimes in 2022 highlights the need for continued vigilance and adaptive crime prevention strategies to sustain the overall positive trend in reducing property crime rates.
