Motor vehicle theft in Hornell remained low throughout the studied period. The number of cases decreased from 3 in 2010 to 1 in 2018, a 66.7% reduction. The motor vehicle theft rate per 1,000 people dropped from 0.3 to 0.1, while the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts fluctuated between 0.02% and 0.01%. These low numbers indicate that motor vehicle theft is not a major concern for the city.

An examination of correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals interesting patterns. As the population density decreased from 3,050 per square mile in 2010 to 2,916 per square mile in 2018, property crimes generally decreased as well. This could suggest that lower population density may contribute to reduced property crime rates. Additionally, the median income increased from $39,633 in 2013 to $41,699 in 2018, coinciding with the overall decrease in property crimes. This might indicate that improved economic conditions could be associated with lower crime rates.

Based on the observed trends, projections suggest that property crime rates in Hornell may continue to decline slightly by 2029. Burglaries could potentially drop to around 3-4 cases per year, while larceny-thefts might decrease to approximately 90-95 cases annually. Motor vehicle thefts are likely to remain low, possibly averaging 1 case per year or less.

In conclusion, Hornell has demonstrated a generally positive trend in property crime reduction from 2010 to 2018. The most significant improvements were seen in burglary and motor vehicle theft rates, while larceny-theft, though still the most common property crime, also showed a downward trend. These changes occurred against a backdrop of slight population decline and modest income growth. If current trends continue, Hornell may experience further reductions in property crime rates over the next five years, potentially enhancing the overall safety and quality of life for its residents.