Motor vehicle theft has been rare in the community. Only two incidents were reported over the entire period: one in 2014 and another in 2020. In 2014, this represented 0.01% of the state's motor vehicle thefts, while in 2020, it accounted for 0.01%. The rate per 1,000 residents was approximately 1.01 in 2014 and 1.10 in 2020. The infrequency of these incidents suggests that motor vehicle theft is not a significant ongoing concern for the city.

Arson incidents were not reported in any year from 2010 to 2020, indicating that this type of property crime is extremely rare or non-existent in the community. This consistent absence of arson cases contributes positively to the overall safety profile of the city.

Examining correlations between property crime trends and other factors, there appears to be a moderate inverse relationship between median income and property crime rates. As median income increased from $35,069 in 2013 to $47,528 in 2020, property crime incidents generally decreased, with some fluctuations. Additionally, the percentage of owner-occupied housing units showed a slight positive correlation with lower crime rates, increasing from 80% in 2013 to 84% in 2020.

Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we anticipate a continuation of the overall declining trend. Based on the historical data and current socioeconomic factors, we project that property crimes will remain low, potentially averaging 1-2 incidents per year. However, given the small population and historical volatility, occasional spikes to 3-4 incidents in a single year remain possible.

In summary, Hornbeak has experienced a general decline in property crimes over the past decade, despite some year-to-year fluctuations. The most significant trend has been the reduction in burglaries and the sporadic nature of larceny-thefts. The absence of arson cases and the rarity of motor vehicle thefts contribute to a relatively safe community profile. The correlation between rising median incomes, stable home ownership rates, and declining crime rates suggests a positive trajectory for the town's safety and economic well-being in the coming years.