Motor vehicle theft in the city has remained relatively low, with some fluctuations. From 3 incidents in 2010, it peaked at 6 in 2017 and 2021, before returning to 3 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents remained stable at about 0.39 in both 2010 and 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts ranged from 0% to 0.04%, indicating that this crime type has a minimal impact on state-wide statistics. The low and stable rates suggest effective local measures in preventing vehicle thefts.

Arson cases have been rare in the city, with only two reported incidents over the 12-year period – one in 2014 and another in 2022. This translates to a rate of 0.13 per 1,000 residents in those years. Notably, the 2022 incident represented 0.16% of state arson cases, a significant proportion given the city's size. While infrequent, these events highlight the need for continued fire safety awareness and prevention strategies.

A strong correlation exists between property crime rates and population density. As the population density increased from 1,881 per square mile in 2010 to 2,059 in 2022, overall property crime rates decreased, suggesting that increased urbanization in this case may have led to improved security measures or community vigilance. Additionally, there appears to be a correlation between rising median income and decreasing property crime rates. The median income increased from $60,316 in 2013 to $64,243 in 2022, coinciding with the overall decrease in property crimes.

Applying predictive models based on these trends, we can forecast that by 2029 (five years from now), Holts Summit may see a further reduction in overall property crimes. Burglaries could potentially decrease to around 5-6 incidents per year, larceny-theft might stabilize at about 20 cases annually, and motor vehicle thefts could remain low at 2-3 incidents per year. Arson is likely to remain a rare occurrence, with possibly one incident every few years.

In conclusion, Holts Summit has demonstrated a positive trend in property crime reduction over the past decade. The significant decrease in crime rates, particularly in burglary and larceny-theft, despite population growth, suggests effective law enforcement strategies and community engagement. These improvements, coupled with rising income levels and increasing population density, paint a picture of a city successfully managing its growth while enhancing public safety. As the city continues to evolve, maintaining these positive trends will be crucial for its long-term prosperity and residents' quality of life.