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Property Crime Trends in Holton, Kansas: A Decade of Significant Reduction
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Holton, Kansas, a small community covering 2.68 square miles, has experienced notable changes in property crime rates over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes decreased significantly from 85 to 32, representing a 62.35% reduction. During the same period, the population grew from 3,751 to 4,119, an increase of 9.81%. This juxtaposition of decreasing crime rates and increasing population presents an intriguing scenario for analysis.
Burglary trends in the city show a substantial decline over the years. In 2010, there were 23 burglaries, which decreased to 4 in 2022, a 82.61% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 6.13 per 1,000 people in 2010 to 0.97 per 1,000 in 2022. The city's share of state burglaries fluctuated, peaking at 0.21% in 2014 and dropping to 0.07% in 2022. This downward trend suggests improved security measures or community policing efforts may be effective in deterring burglaries.
Larceny theft, the most common property crime in the city, also showed a declining trend. From 58 incidents in 2010, it decreased to 27 in 2022, a 53.45% reduction. The rate per 1,000 people dropped from 15.46 in 2010 to 6.55 in 2022. The city's contribution to state larceny theft cases varied, reaching a high of 0.18% in 2018 and 2021, before decreasing to 0.08% in 2022. This overall reduction indicates positive developments in preventing petty thefts and shoplifting.
Motor vehicle theft in the city remained relatively low throughout the period. From 4 incidents in 2010, it decreased to 1 in 2022, a 75% reduction. The rate per 1,000 people fell from 1.07 in 2010 to 0.24 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts fluctuated, peaking at 0.12% in 2014 and 2016, before dropping to 0.02% in 2022. These low numbers suggest effective vehicle security measures or limited opportunities for such crimes in this small city.
Arson cases were rare in the city, with only one incident reported in 2010, 2011, and 2016, and none in other years. This sporadic occurrence makes it difficult to establish a meaningful trend. The city's contribution to state arson cases, when incidents occurred, ranged from 0.21% to 0.34%.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. The decline in property crimes coincided with a slight increase in median income, from $45,874 in 2013 to $47,641 in 2022. Additionally, the percentage of owner-occupied housing remained relatively stable, fluctuating between 58% and 63% during this period. These factors may contribute to a more stable community environment, potentially discouraging property crimes.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continued downward trajectory. Based on the historical data, we can project that total property crimes may decrease further to around 20-25 incidents per year by 2029. However, this prediction assumes current trends and conditions remain relatively stable.
The analysis of property crime trends in Holton reveals a positive trajectory, with significant reductions across all categories of property crime over the past decade. This improvement in public safety, coupled with population growth and economic stability, paints a picture of a community that has made strides in creating a safer environment for its residents. The projected continuation of these trends suggests that Holton may further solidify its status as a low-crime area in the coming years, potentially making it an increasingly attractive place for residents and businesses alike.
