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Property Crime Trends in Holliday, Texas: Shifting Patterns Amid Population Decline
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Holliday, Texas, a small city with a declining population, presents an intriguing case study in property crime trends from 2010 to 2012. Despite a 3.4% decrease in population from 3,328 to 3,214 residents, the total number of property crimes remained stable at 15 incidents in both 2010 and 2012, with a slight increase to 16 in 2011. This stability in overall property crime occurrences against the backdrop of population decline offers a unique perspective on crime dynamics in small urban areas.
Burglary incidents in Holliday showed a downward trend, decreasing from 7 cases in 2010 to 5 cases in 2012, a reduction of 28.6%. When accounting for the population change, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 2.10 in 2010 to 1.55 in 2012. This suggests an improvement in burglary prevention or detection despite the population decline. The city's contribution to state burglary statistics remained negligible at 0% throughout this period.
Larceny-theft cases, however, increased over the three-year period. The number of incidents rose from 8 in 2010 to 10 in 2011, before slightly decreasing to 9 in 2012, representing a net increase of 12.5%. The larceny-theft rate per 1,000 residents increased from 2.40 in 2010 to 2.80 in 2012, indicating a higher prevalence of this crime type relative to the population. Despite this increase, Holliday's contribution to the state's larceny-theft statistics remained at 0%, suggesting that these local changes did not significantly impact state-level figures.
Motor vehicle theft in Holliday saw a notable change, with zero incidents reported in 2010 and 2011, but one case occurring in 2012. This single incident translates to a rate of 0.31 per 1,000 residents in 2012. While this represents a significant percentage increase from previous years, it's important to note that a single incident in a small population can cause substantial statistical fluctuations. The city's contribution to state motor vehicle theft statistics remained at 0% throughout this period.
Arson cases were consistently reported as zero from 2010 to 2012, indicating no incidents of this crime type during the observed period. Consequently, there was no measurable impact on the state's arson statistics, with the city's contribution remaining at 0%.
An examination of correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals a notable relationship with population density. As the population density decreased from 1,339 per square mile in 2010 to 1,293 in 2012, there was a corresponding shift in the composition of property crimes, with burglaries decreasing and larceny-thefts increasing. This suggests that changes in population density may influence the types of property crimes experienced in the city.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next seven years (up to 2029), we can anticipate a potential continuation of the observed patterns. Burglaries may continue to decrease slightly, while larceny-thefts could see a modest increase. Motor vehicle thefts are likely to remain low but may fluctuate due to the small population size. Arson incidents are expected to remain rare or non-existent based on historical data.
In summary, Holliday demonstrates a relatively stable property crime environment with some notable shifts in specific crime types. The decrease in burglaries alongside an increase in larceny-thefts suggests a changing landscape of property crime that may be influenced by population dynamics. While the city's impact on state-level crime statistics remains minimal, these local trends provide valuable insights into the evolving nature of property crime in small urban areas of Texas.
