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Property Crime Trends in Holden Beach: A Coastal Town's Fluctuating Rates
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Holden Beach, a coastal community in North Carolina, has experienced fluctuating property crime rates alongside population changes over the past decade. From 2010 to 2021, the total number of property crimes increased by 33.33%, from 54 to 36 incidents. During this same period, the population decreased by 13.24%, from 3,262 in 2010 to 2,830 in 2021, before rebounding slightly to 2,865 in 2022.
Burglary trends in the city show significant volatility. In 2010, there were 22 burglaries, which peaked at 118 in 2012, representing a 436.36% increase. By 2021, burglaries decreased to 14, a 36.36% reduction from 2010 levels. The burglary rate per 1,000 people rose from 6.74 in 2010 to 43.57 in 2012, then fell to 4.95 in 2021. The city's share of state burglaries increased from 0.04% in 2010 to 0.22% in 2012, before dropping to 0.05% in 2021, indicating a disproportionate spike followed by a return to near-baseline levels relative to state trends.
Larceny-theft incidents fluctuated less dramatically. Starting at 32 cases in 2010, they increased to 57 in 2012 (a 78.13% rise), before decreasing to 20 in 2021 (a 37.5% drop from 2010). The rate per 1,000 people went from 9.81 in 2010 to 21.05 in 2012, then down to 7.07 in 2021. The city's portion of state larceny-thefts remained relatively stable, moving from 0.02% in 2010 to 0.04% in 2012, and back to 0.02% in 2021, suggesting local trends generally aligned with state patterns.
Motor vehicle theft showed minimal activity. There were no reported cases in 2010, 2011, and 2014. One case was reported in 2012, and two in 2021. The rate per 1,000 people was 0.37 in 2012 and 0.71 in 2021. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts was 0% in most years, rising slightly to 0.01% in 2012 and 0.02% in 2021, indicating that this crime remains relatively rare in the community.
Arson data is limited, with no reported cases throughout the available years. This suggests that arson is not a significant concern for the city, maintaining a 0% share of state arson cases.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate inverse relationship between property crime rates and median income. As median income increased from $44,237 in 2013 to $61,426 in 2022, overall property crime rates generally decreased. Additionally, there's a weak positive correlation between home ownership rates and reduced property crime. The percentage of owner-occupied homes rose from 78% in 2013 to 87% in 2022, coinciding with the overall downward trend in property crimes.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends through 2029 (five years from now), we anticipate a continued gradual decrease in overall property crime rates. Burglary and larceny-theft are expected to maintain their downward trajectories, while motor vehicle theft may remain low but could see occasional spikes due to its low baseline.
In conclusion, Holden Beach has experienced a general decline in property crime rates over the past decade, despite some fluctuations. The most significant changes occurred in burglary rates, which saw a dramatic spike in 2012 before returning to lower levels. The community's increasing median income and high rate of home ownership appear to correlate with the overall reduction in property crimes. As the city continues to grow and develop, maintaining these positive socioeconomic factors may contribute to further reductions in property crime rates in the coming years.
