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Property Crime Trends in Hill Country Village: A Decade of Fluctuations in a Small Texas City
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Hill Country Village, a small community in Texas, has experienced notable fluctuations in property crime rates over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes varied, starting at 32 in 2010, peaking at 53 in 2015, and settling at 35 in 2022, representing a 9.38% increase over the 12-year period. During this same timeframe, the population saw a slight decrease from 1,705 in 2010 to 1,636 in 2022, a 4.05% reduction.
Burglary trends in the city have been variable. In 2010, there were 4 burglaries, which increased to 13 in 2015, the highest point in the dataset. By 2022, this number had decreased to 3, representing a 25% decrease from 2010. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents rose from 2.35 in 2010 to 7.27 in 2015, before falling to 1.83 in 2022. The city's contribution to state burglary figures remained minimal, typically at 0.01% or less, indicating that these crimes are primarily local issues rather than significantly impacting state-wide statistics.
Larceny theft, the most common property crime in the city, showed considerable variation. In 2010, there were 27 reported cases, which increased to a high of 41 in 2012, before decreasing to 30 in 2022, an 11.11% increase over the period. The rate per 1,000 residents fluctuated accordingly, from 15.84 in 2010 to 22.69 in 2012, settling at 18.34 in 2022. The city's contribution to state larceny theft figures remained consistently low at 0.01% or less, suggesting that while these crimes are a local concern, they do not significantly impact state-wide trends.
Motor vehicle theft in the city has shown an overall increase. From 1 case in 2010, it peaked at 8 in 2015, before settling at 2 in 2022, representing a 100% increase over the 12-year period. The rate per 1,000 residents increased from 0.59 in 2010 to 4.47 in 2015, ending at 1.22 in 2022. The city's contribution to state motor vehicle theft figures remained minimal, typically at 0.01% or less, indicating that these crimes are primarily local issues.
Arson cases in Hill Country Village have been consistently reported as zero throughout the entire period from 2010 to 2022. This absence of arson cases suggests that fire-related property crimes are not a significant concern for the community.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate inverse relationship between property crime rates and median income. As the median income increased from $91,948 in 2013 to $98,085 in 2022, there was a general downward trend in property crimes, from 41 in 2013 to 35 in 2022. This suggests that as economic conditions improved, property crime rates tended to decrease.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we anticipate a slight downward trend in overall property crimes. Burglaries are expected to remain low, potentially decreasing to 1-2 cases annually. Larceny theft is projected to stabilize around 25-30 cases per year. Motor vehicle theft may fluctuate between 1-3 cases annually. Arson cases are predicted to remain at zero, continuing the historical trend.
In summary, Hill Country Village has experienced fluctuating property crime rates over the past decade, with an overall slight increase in total property crimes despite population decrease. Larceny theft remains the most prevalent issue, while burglary and motor vehicle theft have shown varying trends. The city's contribution to state crime figures remains minimal across all categories. The inverse relationship between rising median income and decreasing crime rates suggests that improving economic conditions may contribute to crime reduction. Looking ahead, the city is expected to maintain relatively low and stable property crime rates, with potential for further improvements as economic conditions continue to evolve.
