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Property Crime Trends in Hermitage: A Decade of Fluctuations and Population Decline
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Hermitage, located in Pennsylvania, has experienced notable shifts in property crime trends over the past decade. From 2010 to 2018, the total number of property crimes fluctuated, starting at 478 in 2010, peaking at 559 in 2013, and then declining to 497 in 2018, representing a 4% increase overall. During this same period, the population decreased from 16,350 in 2010 to 15,929 in 2018, a 2.6% decline.
Burglary rates in the city showed a general downward trend. In 2010, there were 79 burglaries, which decreased to 40 by 2018, a significant 49.4% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 4.83 per 1,000 people in 2010 to 2.51 per 1,000 in 2018. Interestingly, despite this decrease in absolute numbers, the city's share of state burglaries remained relatively stable, fluctuating between 0.22% and 0.39% over the period. This suggests that while local efforts may have been effective in reducing burglaries, the trend was somewhat consistent with statewide patterns.
Larceny-theft, the most prevalent property crime in the city, showed more variability. Starting at 393 incidents in 2010, it reached a high of 488 in 2013 before declining to 443 in 2018, representing a 12.7% increase over the period. The rate per 1,000 residents increased from 24.04 in 2010 to 27.81 in 2018. The city's share of state larceny-theft incidents grew from 0.51% in 2010 to 0.69% in 2018, indicating that this type of crime became more concentrated in the area relative to the state average.
Motor vehicle theft demonstrated considerable fluctuation. From 6 incidents in 2010, it rose to a peak of 14 in both 2011 and 2018, a 133% increase. The rate per 1,000 residents grew from 0.37 in 2010 to 0.88 in 2018. The city's proportion of state motor vehicle thefts increased from 0.06% to 0.17% over this period, suggesting a disproportionate rise compared to state trends.
Arson cases in the city were relatively rare, with numbers ranging from 0 to 4 incidents per year. The highest number was recorded in 2010 with 4 cases, representing 0.66% of state arsons. By 2018, there was just 1 incident, accounting for 0.12% of state arsons. The low frequency of arson makes it difficult to discern clear trends, but it appears to have decreased overall.
A strong correlation emerged between property crime rates and population density. As the population density decreased from 554 per square mile in 2010 to 540 in 2018, there was a corresponding fluctuation in property crime rates. This suggests that changes in community dynamics associated with population shifts may influence crime patterns.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we anticipate a continuation of the overall declining trend in burglaries, with potential rates dropping below 2 per 1,000 residents. Larceny-theft is expected to remain the predominant property crime but may stabilize or slightly decrease if current trends persist. Motor vehicle theft could continue to fluctuate but may show a slight upward trend based on recent increases.
In summary, Hermitage has experienced a complex evolution of property crime patterns over the past decade. While burglaries have significantly decreased, larceny-theft and motor vehicle theft have shown increases, both in absolute numbers and as a proportion of state totals. These trends, coupled with the declining population, suggest a changing urban landscape that may require targeted strategies to address specific property crime challenges in the coming years.
