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Property Crime Trends in Herington, Kansas: A Decade of Fluctuations Amid Population Decline
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Herington, Kansas, a small city with a population that decreased from 3,398 in 2010 to 2,819 in 2019, offers an intriguing case study in property crime trends over the past decade. From 2010 to 2019, the total number of property crimes in Herington fluctuated, starting at 73 in 2010 and ending at 58 in 2019, representing a 20.55% decrease. This reduction in crime occurred alongside a 17.04% decrease in population during the same period.
Burglary trends in Herington have shown significant variability. In 2010, there were 17 burglaries, which decreased to 9 in 2011, but then rose again to 17 in 2012. By 2019, burglaries had decreased to 12. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents fluctuated from 5.00 in 2010 to 4.26 in 2019. The city's share of state burglaries varied widely, from a low of 0.06% in 2011 to a high of 0.26% in 2014, before settling at 0.19% in 2019. This volatility suggests that while burglary remains a concern, its impact on the city's overall crime picture is inconsistent.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in Herington, showed a downward trend over the decade. From 56 incidents in 2010, it decreased to 43 in 2019, a 23.21% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents actually increased slightly from 16.48 in 2010 to 15.25 in 2019, due to the population decrease outpacing the crime reduction. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft remained relatively stable, ranging from 0.05% to 0.13% over the period, indicating that the local trend generally aligned with statewide patterns.
Motor vehicle theft in Herington showed an interesting pattern. There were no reported cases in 2010, but this crime type emerged in subsequent years. The number peaked at 8 incidents in both 2015 and 2016, before decreasing to 3 in 2019. The rate per 1,000 residents went from 0 in 2010 to 1.06 in 2019. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts fluctuated, reaching a high of 0.16% in 2016 before dropping to 0.06% in 2019. This suggests that while motor vehicle theft has become a more prevalent issue over the decade, recent years have seen some improvement.
Arson incidents were rare in Herington, with only two reported cases in the entire decade - one each in 2015 and 2018. This translates to rates of 0.34 and 0.35 per 1,000 residents in those respective years. The city's contribution to state arson cases was 0.25% in 2015 and 0.33% in 2018. Given the infrequency of arson, it's difficult to discern a clear trend, but it appears to be a minimal concern for the city.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate inverse relationship between property crime rates and median income in Herington. As median income decreased from $44,514 in 2013 to $38,361 in 2019, property crime rates showed an overall increase. Additionally, there seems to be a weak positive correlation between the percentage of non-white residents and property crime rates. As the white population decreased from 89% in 2013 to 80% in 2019, property crime rates showed some increase, though this relationship is not consistently strong across all years.
Applying predictive models based on historical trends, it's projected that by 2029, property crime rates in Herington may stabilize or slightly decrease if current socioeconomic trends continue. The city might expect to see around 50-55 total property crimes annually, with larceny-theft remaining the predominant type.
In summary, Herington has experienced a complex evolution in its property crime landscape over the past decade. While overall property crime has decreased, individual categories like motor vehicle theft have emerged as new concerns. The city's changing demographics and economic conditions appear to have some influence on crime trends, though these relationships are not uniformly strong. As the community continues to evolve, ongoing monitoring and adaptive strategies will be crucial in maintaining and improving public safety.
