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Property Crime Trends in Hercules, California: A Decade of Decline Amid Population Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Hercules, located in California, has experienced notable shifts in property crime trends alongside population growth over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes decreased by 38.8%, from 356 to 218, while the population increased by 11% from 23,816 to 26,438 residents.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a significant decline over the years. In 2010, there were 74 burglaries, which decreased to 30 in 2022, representing a 59.5% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 3.11 per 1,000 residents in 2010 to 1.13 per 1,000 in 2022. The city's share of state burglaries remained relatively stable, fluctuating between 0.03% and 0.07% throughout the period, indicating that the local trend generally aligned with statewide patterns.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the city, demonstrated a downward trend. Cases decreased from 201 in 2010 to 134 in 2022, a 33.3% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents dropped from 8.44 in 2010 to 5.07 in 2022. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft cases remained consistently low, ranging between 0.03% and 0.05%, suggesting that local efforts to combat this crime type have been relatively effective.
Motor vehicle theft trends have been more volatile. From 81 cases in 2010, the number dropped to 54 in 2022, a 33.3% decrease. However, there were fluctuations, with the lowest point of 28 cases in 2018. The rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 3.4 in 2010 to 2.04 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts ranged from 0.02% to 0.06%, indicating that local trends sometimes diverged from state patterns.
Arson cases in the city have been rare, with only a few instances reported over the years. The highest number was 4 cases in 2010, dropping to zero in most subsequent years, with 2 cases reported in 2020. Due to the low numbers, arson rates per 1,000 residents and the city's share of state arsons remained negligible throughout the period.
A strong correlation exists between the declining property crime rates and the increasing median income in the city. As the median income rose from $107,461 in 2013 to $118,373 in 2022, property crimes per 1,000 residents decreased from 11 to 8.25. This suggests that improved economic conditions may contribute to lower crime rates.
Additionally, there's a noticeable relationship between the racial composition changes and property crime trends. As the Asian population increased from 40% in 2013 to 41% in 2022, and the White population remained stable at around 19%, property crime rates decreased. This correlation might indicate that demographic shifts have played a role in the city's changing crime landscape.
Applying predictive models based on historical trends, it's forecasted that property crime rates will continue to decline gradually over the next five years. By 2029, total property crimes could potentially decrease to around 180-190 cases annually, assuming current socioeconomic trends and law enforcement strategies remain consistent.
In summary, Hercules has experienced a significant overall reduction in property crimes from 2010 to 2022, with particularly notable decreases in burglary and larceny-theft rates. These positive trends, coupled with rising median incomes and stable homeownership rates, suggest an improving quality of life for residents. The city's property crime rates have generally outperformed state averages, indicating effective local crime prevention strategies. As the community continues to evolve demographically and economically, maintaining these positive trends will be crucial for ensuring the ongoing safety and well-being of its residents.
