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Property Crime Trends in Herculaneum, Missouri: A Study of Fluctuations Amidst Population Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Herculaneum, located in Missouri, has experienced notable changes in property crime trends alongside significant population growth over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes fluctuated, with a slight overall increase from 88 in 2010 to 93 in 2022, representing a 5.68% increase. During this same period, the population grew substantially from 3,961 in 2010 to 5,177 in 2022, a 30.7% increase.
Burglary trends in the city have shown a general decline over time. In 2010, there were 4 burglaries, which peaked at 10 in 2012, but by 2022, the number had returned to 4. When adjusted for population growth, the burglary rate per 1,000 people decreased from 1.01 in 2010 to 0.77 in 2022. The city's share of state burglaries increased slightly from 0.01% in 2010 to 0.03% in 2022, indicating that while local burglaries decreased relative to population, they maintained a consistent proportion of state-wide incidents.
Larceny theft, the most common property crime in the city, showed more variability. The number of incidents decreased from 81 in 2010 to 72 in 2022, an 11.11% reduction. However, when accounting for population growth, the rate per 1,000 people fell more significantly from 20.45 in 2010 to 13.91 in 2022. The city's contribution to state larceny theft incidents increased from 0.07% to 0.09% over this period, suggesting a slower decrease in larceny theft compared to state-wide trends.
Motor vehicle theft exhibited a concerning upward trend. From 3 incidents in 2010, it increased to 17 in 2022, a 466.67% rise. The rate per 1,000 people grew from 0.76 in 2010 to 3.28 in 2022. More notably, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts jumped from 0.02% to 0.07%, indicating a faster increase in this crime category compared to state averages.
Arson cases were rare but showed a spike in recent years. From no reported cases in most years, there were 3 incidents in 2022, resulting in a significant increase in the city's contribution to state arson cases, rising to 0.49% in 2022. This sudden increase warrants attention from local law enforcement.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a relationship between the increase in property crimes and population density, which rose from 952 people per square mile in 2010 to 1,245 in 2022. Additionally, the rise in median income from $53,134 in 2013 to $58,365 in 2022 coincides with changes in crime patterns, particularly the increase in motor vehicle thefts.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we anticipate a continued increase in motor vehicle thefts, potentially reaching 25-30 incidents annually. Larceny theft is expected to stabilize around 70-75 incidents per year. Burglary rates are likely to remain low, potentially decreasing further to 2-3 incidents annually. Arson cases, given their rarity and recent spike, are difficult to predict but should be closely monitored.
In summary, Herculaneum has experienced a complex evolution of property crime trends against a backdrop of significant population growth. While some categories like burglary have shown improvement, the sharp rise in motor vehicle thefts and the recent spike in arson cases present new challenges for local law enforcement. The city's changing demographics and economic profile appear to be influencing these trends, underscoring the need for adaptive crime prevention strategies in this growing community.
