Motor vehicle theft trends have been more variable. In 2010, there were 134 motor vehicle thefts, which decreased to 125 in 2022, a 6.7% reduction. However, the rate per 1,000 people actually decreased more significantly due to population growth, from 2.5 in 2010 to 2.1 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts fluctuated, starting at 0.87% in 2010, peaking at 1.35% in 2014, and then declining to 0.6% by 2022. This suggests that while motor vehicle theft remains a concern, its prevalence relative to the state has improved in recent years.

Arson cases in the city have fluctuated over the years. In 2010, there were 8 reported arsons, which decreased to 5 in 2022, a 37.5% reduction. The rate per 1,000 people dropped from 0.15 in 2010 to 0.09 in 2022. The city's contribution to state arson figures varied significantly, from 1.4% in 2010 to a low of 0.43% in 2019, before rising to 1.08% in 2022. This volatility in arson rates suggests that targeted prevention efforts may be needed to address this specific crime type.

Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. As the median income increased from $64,869 in 2013 to $77,727 in 2022, there was a corresponding decrease in overall property crime rates. This suggests that improved economic conditions may contribute to reduced property crime. Additionally, the slight increase in homeownership rates from 40% in 2013 to 44% in 2022 coincides with the decrease in property crimes, potentially indicating that higher levels of community investment and stability contribute to lower crime rates.

Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continuation of the overall downward trend, albeit at a slower rate. Burglaries are expected to stabilize around 70-80 cases per year, while larceny theft may plateau at approximately 400 cases annually. Motor vehicle theft is projected to remain relatively stable at 110-120 cases per year. Arson cases are expected to remain low but may fluctuate between 3-6 cases annually due to their sporadic nature.

In conclusion, Hempstead has made significant strides in reducing property crime rates across most categories over the past decade. The consistent decrease in burglaries and larceny thefts, coupled with the relative stability in motor vehicle thefts and arson cases, suggests an overall improvement in public safety. These positive trends, combined with population growth and increasing median income, paint a picture of a community that is becoming safer and more prosperous. However, continued vigilance and targeted crime prevention strategies will be crucial to maintain and further improve these positive trends in the coming years.