Motor vehicle theft in the city has shown a modest increase. The number of incidents rose from 2 in 2010 to 5 in 2022, a 150% increase. The rate per 1,000 residents increased slightly from 0.14 in 2010 to 0.21 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts remained relatively constant at 0.01% throughout the period. This suggests that motor vehicle theft has grown somewhat faster than the population but remains a relatively minor concern in the broader context of the city's property crime landscape.

Arson incidents in the city have been sporadic and infrequent. Only two years in the dataset (2016 and 2019) reported any arson cases, with one incident each year. This represents 0.04% and 0.05% of state arson cases respectively. Given the rarity of these incidents, it's difficult to establish a meaningful trend or relationship to population growth.

Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. The rise in property crimes appears to have a moderate positive correlation with population density, which increased from 1,999 people per square mile in 2010 to 3,357 in 2022. Additionally, there seems to be a weak negative correlation between property crime rates and median income, which grew from $104,317 in 2013 to $116,052 in 2022. The percentage of owner-occupied housing units remained relatively stable, fluctuating between 84% and 90% during the period, showing no strong correlation with property crime trends.

Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continued gradual increase in overall property crime incidents. Based on current trends, we might expect to see total property crimes reach approximately 200-220 incidents per year by 2029. Burglaries are projected to continue their upward trend, potentially reaching 35-40 incidents annually. Larceny-theft is expected to remain the most common property crime, with predictions indicating 150-170 incidents per year. Motor vehicle theft may see a slight increase to 6-8 incidents annually.

In summary, Helotes has experienced a significant increase in property crimes over the past decade, outpacing its substantial population growth. Burglary and larceny-theft have shown the most notable increases, while motor vehicle theft has seen modest growth. The city's contribution to state-wide property crime statistics has generally increased, particularly in burglary and larceny-theft categories. These trends, coupled with the city's rapid population growth and increasing density, suggest that local law enforcement and community leaders may need to implement targeted strategies to address the rising property crime rates in Helotes.