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Property Crime Trends in Hays, Kansas: A Decade of Improvement Amid Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Hays, located in Kansas, presents an intriguing case study in property crime trends. From 2010 to 2021, the total number of property crimes fluctuated, with a notable decrease from 630 in 2010 to 394 in 2021, representing a 37.5% reduction. During this same period, the population grew from 21,678 in 2010 to 23,173 in 2021, an increase of 6.9%.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a significant downward trend over the years. In 2010, there were 73 burglaries, which decreased to 43 by 2021, a 41.1% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate dropped from 3.37 per 1,000 people in 2010 to 1.86 per 1,000 in 2021. Interestingly, while the number of burglaries decreased, the city's share of state burglaries increased from 0.49% in 2010 to 1.18% in 2021, suggesting a potentially more significant decrease in burglaries at the state level.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the city, also showed a declining trend. In 2010, there were 542 larceny-theft incidents, which decreased to 334 by 2021, a 38.4% reduction. The rate per 1,000 people dropped from 25.0 in 2010 to 14.4 in 2021. Despite this decrease, the city's share of state larceny-theft incidents increased from 1.02% in 2010 to 1.76% in 2021, indicating a possible larger decrease in larceny-theft across the state.
Motor vehicle theft in the city has fluctuated over the years but shows an overall increase. In 2010, there were 15 motor vehicle thefts, which rose to 17 in 2021, a 13.3% increase. The rate per 1,000 people increased slightly from 0.69 in 2010 to 0.73 in 2021. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts doubled from 0.29% in 2010 to 0.60% in 2021, suggesting a potential decrease in motor vehicle thefts at the state level.
Arson incidents in the city have been relatively low but variable. In 2010, there were 6 arsons, which decreased to 4 in 2021, a 33.3% reduction. The rate per 1,000 people dropped from 0.28 in 2010 to 0.17 in 2021. However, the city's share of state arsons increased significantly from 1.34% in 2010 to 2.30% in 2021, indicating a possible larger decrease in arsons across the state.
Analysis of correlations reveals some interesting patterns. There appears to be a moderate negative correlation between median income and property crime rates. As the median income increased from $49,243 in 2013 to $63,695 in 2022, there was a general downward trend in property crime rates. This suggests that improving economic conditions may contribute to reduced property crime.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next seven years (up to 2029, which is five years from now in 2024), we can expect the overall downward trend in property crimes to continue, albeit at a slower rate. Burglaries and larceny-theft are likely to see further reductions, potentially reaching around 35 and 300 incidents respectively by 2029. Motor vehicle theft may stabilize around 15-20 incidents per year. Arson incidents are expected to remain low, possibly fluctuating between 2-5 cases annually.
In summary, Hays has experienced a significant reduction in overall property crime rates from 2010 to 2021, despite population growth. This positive trend is particularly evident in burglaries and larceny-theft. The increase in median income correlates with this crime reduction, suggesting improving economic conditions may play a role in enhancing public safety. However, the city's increasing share of state crime percentages in various categories indicates that these improvements may be outpacing state-wide trends, highlighting the effectiveness of local crime prevention strategies in Hays.
