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Property Crime Trends in Havelock, NC: A Decade of Declining Incidents Amid Population Decrease
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Havelock, located in North Carolina, presents an intriguing case study in property crime trends. From 2013 to 2022, the city experienced fluctuations in its total property crime incidents, with a notable decrease from 505 in 2013 to 343 in 2022, representing a 32.1% reduction. This decline occurred alongside a population decrease from 22,447 in 2013 to 17,938 in 2022, a 20.1% drop.
Burglary trends in the city show significant variations over the years. In 2013, there were 147 burglaries, which decreased to 61 in 2022, a 58.5% reduction. When considering population trends, the burglary rate per 1,000 people decreased from 6.55 in 2013 to 3.40 in 2022. Interestingly, the city's share of state burglaries fluctuated, peaking at 0.79% in 2018 before declining to 0.25% in 2022. This suggests that while burglaries have decreased overall, their proportion relative to state figures has varied considerably.
Larceny-theft incidents also showed a downward trend, decreasing from 348 in 2013 to 273 in 2022, a 21.6% reduction. The larceny-theft rate per 1,000 people slightly increased from 15.50 in 2013 to 15.22 in 2022, indicating that the decrease in larceny-theft incidents was nearly proportional to the population decline. The city's share of state larceny-theft cases remained relatively stable, ranging from 0.15% to 0.37% over the period, suggesting consistent performance relative to state trends.
Motor vehicle theft in the city remained relatively low throughout the period. In 2013, there were 10 incidents, which decreased slightly to 9 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 people increased marginally from 0.45 in 2013 to 0.50 in 2022 due to the population decrease. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts fluctuated between 0.01% and 0.18%, indicating a minor contribution to the state's overall figures.
Arson incidents in the city were sporadic and low in number. Data shows 0 incidents in 2013, peaking at 5 in 2019, and dropping to 1 in 2022. The arson rate per 1,000 people in 2022 was 0.06. The city's share of state arson cases varied significantly, from 0% in several years to a high of 0.72% in 2019, suggesting that even small changes in arson incidents can significantly impact the city's proportion of state figures due to the low overall numbers.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate inverse relationship between property crime rates and population density. As the population density decreased from 1,313 per square mile in 2013 to 1,049 in 2022, the overall property crime rate per 1,000 people increased slightly from 22.50 to 19.12. This suggests that while total crime numbers decreased, the rate relative to the shrinking population remained somewhat stable.
Applying predictive models based on the observed trends, it's projected that by 2029, Havelock may see a further reduction in overall property crime incidents. Burglaries are expected to continue their downward trend, potentially reaching around 40-50 incidents annually. Larceny-theft may stabilize or slightly decrease to approximately 250-260 cases per year. Motor vehicle theft is likely to remain low, possibly fluctuating between 5-10 incidents annually. Arson cases are expected to remain sporadic and low, with 0-2 incidents per year.
In summary, Havelock has shown a general improvement in property crime statistics over the past decade, with significant reductions in burglary and larceny-theft incidents. The city's share of state crime figures has fluctuated but generally remained low, indicating localized improvements that may not necessarily reflect statewide trends. The relationship between crime rates and population changes suggests that while absolute numbers have decreased, the city faces ongoing challenges in further reducing crime rates relative to its shrinking population.
