Loading Content...
Property Crime Trends in Havana, Illinois: A Decade of Decline in a Small City
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Havana, located in Illinois, presents an intriguing case study in property crime trends. Over the past decade, from 2011 to 2022, the total number of property crimes fluctuated, with a notable decrease from 90 incidents in 2011 to 71 in 2022, representing a 21.1% reduction. During this same period, the population declined from 5,127 in 2011 to 4,831 in 2022, a 5.8% decrease, suggesting a complex relationship between population changes and crime rates.
Burglary trends in the city show a significant decline over time. In 2011, there were 26 burglaries, which dropped to just 7 in 2022, marking a 73.1% decrease. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 5.07 per 1,000 residents in 2011 to 1.45 per 1,000 in 2022. The city's share of state burglaries remained relatively stable, fluctuating between 0.02% and 0.05% throughout the period. This substantial reduction in burglaries, even as a percentage of state crime, indicates improved security measures or changing criminal behavior patterns within the community.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the city, also experienced a downward trend. Incidents decreased from 63 in 2011 to 61 in 2022, a modest 3.2% reduction. However, when considering population changes, the rate per 1,000 residents actually increased slightly from 12.29 in 2011 to 12.63 in 2022. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft incidents rose from 0.04% to 0.06% over this period, suggesting that while overall numbers decreased, the city's relative share of this crime type increased marginally.
Motor vehicle theft trends show more volatility. The number of incidents ranged from a low of 0 in 2016 to a high of 9 in 2019. In 2022, there were 3 reported cases, up from 1 in 2011. This translates to an increase from 0.20 to 0.62 incidents per 1,000 residents. The city's percentage of state motor vehicle thefts fluctuated between 0% and 0.06%, with 2022 showing 0.01%. These figures suggest that while motor vehicle theft is not a major concern, it has seen some increase relative to the population.
Arson cases in the city have been rare, with only one incident reported in 2011, 2015, and 2020, and no cases in other years. This sporadic occurrence makes it difficult to establish a clear trend. When arson did occur, it represented between 0.08% and 0.11% of state arson cases, indicating that these isolated incidents had a noticeable impact on state-level statistics due to the city's small size.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate inverse relationship between median income and property crime rates. As median income increased from $43,264 in 2013 to $49,976 in 2022, overall property crime rates tended to decrease. Additionally, the slight increase in homeownership rates from 73% in 2013 to 79% in 2022 coincides with the general downward trend in property crimes, suggesting that increased community investment may contribute to lower crime rates.
Applying predictive models based on these trends, it's projected that by 2029 (five years from now), the city could see a further reduction in overall property crimes to approximately 60-65 incidents annually. Burglaries are expected to continue their downward trend, potentially reaching 4-5 cases per year. Larceny-theft is likely to remain the predominant property crime but may stabilize around 55-58 incidents annually. Motor vehicle theft could fluctuate between 2-4 cases per year, while arson is expected to remain a rare occurrence with 0-1 incidents in any given year.
In conclusion, Havana has demonstrated a generally positive trend in property crime reduction over the past decade, particularly in burglaries. The interplay between declining population, increasing median income, and rising homeownership rates appears to have contributed to this favorable outcome. While challenges remain, especially in larceny-theft, the overall trajectory suggests a community becoming safer and more stable. These trends, if continued, could position Havana as a model for small-city crime reduction strategies in Illinois.
