Motor vehicle theft in the city has shown fluctuations but an overall increase. There were 38 cases in 2010, which rose to 46 in 2022, a 21% increase. However, when adjusted for population growth, the rate per 1,000 residents actually decreased slightly from 2.81 in 2010 to 2.39 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts increased from 0.38% in 2010 to 0.70% in 2022, suggesting that while the rate has decreased relative to the city's population, it has increased relative to the state's overall vehicle theft incidents.

Arson data for the city is limited, with only one reported case in 2012 and no other incidents recorded in the available data. This singular event represented 0.27% of state arson cases for that year. The lack of consistent arson data makes it difficult to draw meaningful conclusions about trends or patterns for this specific crime category.

Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. As population density increased from 11,181 per square mile in 2010 to 15,866 in 2022, there was a corresponding rise in overall property crimes, particularly larceny-theft. This suggests that the increasing urban density may be contributing to more opportunities for certain types of property crime. Additionally, the median income rose from $59,315 in 2013 to $77,793 in 2022, while the percentage of owner-occupied housing decreased from 31% in 2013 to 22% in 2022. This inverse relationship between rising incomes and declining homeownership, coupled with increasing property crimes, might indicate changing socioeconomic dynamics within the city that are influencing crime patterns.

Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continued increase in overall property crimes, primarily driven by larceny-theft. Based on current trends, we might expect to see larceny-theft cases approach 400 annually, while burglaries could potentially decrease further to single digits. Motor vehicle thefts are predicted to remain relatively stable or show a slight increase, potentially reaching around 50-55 cases annually. However, these predictions should be interpreted cautiously, as various factors, including law enforcement strategies and socioeconomic changes, could significantly impact future crime rates.

In conclusion, Harrison has experienced a complex evolution in its property crime landscape against the backdrop of rapid population growth. The most significant changes include a dramatic decrease in burglaries, a substantial increase in larceny-theft, and a moderate rise in motor vehicle thefts relative to the state. These trends, coupled with the city's changing demographics and economic profile, paint a picture of a rapidly evolving urban environment facing new challenges in property crime prevention and management.