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Property Crime Trends in Harlingen, Texas: A Decade of Significant Decline
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Harlingen, located in Texas, has experienced significant fluctuations in property crime rates over the past decade, alongside notable population growth. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes decreased by 53.8%, from 4,405 to 2,034 incidents. During this same period, the population grew by 10%, from 65,124 to 71,669 residents, highlighting a complex interplay between demographic changes and criminal activity in the city.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a substantial decline over the years. In 2010, there were 850 burglary incidents, which dropped to 260 by 2022, representing a 69.4% decrease. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 13.05 per 1,000 people in 2010 to 3.63 per 1,000 in 2022. The city's share of state burglaries fluctuated, peaking at 0.53% in 2017 before declining to 0.33% in 2022. This significant reduction in burglaries suggests improved home security measures or more effective law enforcement strategies in the city.
Larceny-theft incidents also demonstrated a downward trend, though less pronounced than burglaries. The number of larceny-thefts decreased from 3,375 in 2010 to 1,646 in 2022, a 51.2% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents dropped from 51.82 in 2010 to 22.97 in 2022. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft figures decreased from 0.61% in 2010 to 0.41% in 2022. This trend indicates a general improvement in property security and possibly changes in local economic conditions affecting theft opportunities.
Motor vehicle theft showed a more complex pattern. While incidents decreased from 180 in 2010 to 128 in 2022, a 28.9% reduction, the trend wasn't consistently downward. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 2.76 in 2010 to 1.79 in 2022. Interestingly, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts decreased from 0.32% in 2010 to 0.16% in 2022, suggesting that while local efforts may have had some success, the city's improvements outpaced state-level trends.
Arson cases in the city fluctuated significantly over the years. From 32 incidents in 2010, the number dropped to 11 in 2022, a 65.6% decrease. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 0.49 in 2010 to 0.15 in 2022. The city's contribution to state arson cases varied widely, from 0.76% in 2010 to a peak of 1.32% in 2016, before settling at 0.5% in 2022. These fluctuations might indicate sporadic incidents rather than a consistent trend, possibly influenced by specific local factors or changes in reporting methods.
A strong correlation emerges between the overall reduction in property crimes and the increase in median income. As the median income rose from $38,908 in 2013 to $50,166 in 2022, a 28.9% increase, property crimes decreased by 21.3% in the same period. This suggests that improved economic conditions may have contributed to reduced property crime rates.
Applying predictive models to these trends, it's projected that by 2029, Harlingen could see further reductions in property crime rates. Burglaries might decrease to around 180 incidents per year, larceny-thefts could drop to approximately 1,400 cases annually, and motor vehicle thefts might stabilize at around 110 incidents per year. Arson cases are expected to remain low, potentially averaging 8-10 incidents annually.
In conclusion, Harlingen has demonstrated a remarkable improvement in property crime rates over the past decade, particularly in burglaries and larceny-thefts. This positive trend, coupled with population growth and rising median incomes, suggests a city that is becoming safer and more prosperous. The projected continued decrease in property crimes over the next five years indicates a promising outlook for the city's safety and security landscape.
