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Property Crime Trends in Harker Heights, Texas: A Decade of Improvement Near Fort Hood
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Harker Heights, a city in Texas, has experienced significant changes in property crime rates alongside substantial population growth over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes decreased by 48.4%, from 880 to 454 incidents. During this same period, the population grew by 48.6%, from 28,299 to 42,055 residents, presenting an interesting juxtaposition of declining crime rates amidst rapid urban expansion.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a dramatic decline over the years. In 2010, there were 248 burglary incidents, which decreased to 68 in 2022, representing a 72.6% reduction. When adjusted for population growth, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents fell from 8.76 in 2010 to 1.62 in 2022, a substantial 81.5% decrease. The city's share of state burglaries also declined from 0.14% to 0.09% during this period, indicating an improvement in burglary prevention relative to the state average.
Larceny-theft trends mirror the overall property crime decline but to a lesser extent. The number of larceny-theft incidents decreased from 607 in 2010 to 342 in 2022, a 43.7% reduction. Adjusted for population, the rate per 1,000 residents dropped from 21.45 to 8.13, a 62.1% decrease. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft figures decreased slightly from 0.11% to 0.09%, suggesting that while improvements were made, they were somewhat in line with state-wide trends.
Motor vehicle theft presents a more complex picture. The raw number of incidents increased from 25 in 2010 to 44 in 2022, a 76% rise. However, when considering the population growth, the rate per 1,000 residents increased only marginally from 0.88 to 1.05, a 19.3% increase. Interestingly, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts increased from 0.04% to 0.05%, indicating that this type of crime became slightly more prevalent in the city compared to state averages.
Arson cases in the city have fluctuated but remain relatively low. The number of incidents decreased from 3 in 2010 to 1 in 2022, a 66.7% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 0.11 to 0.02, an 81.8% decrease. However, the city's share of state arson cases decreased from 0.07% to 0.05%, suggesting that while improvements were made, they were somewhat in line with state-wide trends.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong inverse relationship between population density and property crime rates. As the population density increased from 1,810 per square mile in 2010 to 2,691 in 2022, overall property crime rates declined. Additionally, there's a noticeable correlation between changing racial demographics and crime rates. As the white population percentage decreased from 51% in 2013 to 38% in 2022, and the black population increased from 16% to 27%, property crime rates continued to decline, challenging potential stereotypes about race and crime.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we can anticipate a continued gradual decline in overall property crime rates. Burglary and larceny-theft are likely to continue their downward trajectory, potentially reaching rates of 1.2 and 6.5 per 1,000 residents, respectively. Motor vehicle theft rates may stabilize around 1.1 per 1,000 residents, while arson cases are expected to remain low but could fluctuate due to their already small numbers.
In conclusion, Harker Heights has demonstrated a remarkable ability to reduce property crime rates despite significant population growth. The substantial decreases in burglary and larceny-theft, coupled with the relatively stable motor vehicle theft and arson rates, suggest effective law enforcement strategies and community engagement. These trends, if continued, position the city as an increasingly safe urban area, potentially attracting more residents and businesses in the coming years.
