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Property Crime Trends in Hannibal, Missouri: Mark Twain's Hometown Sees Significant Reductions
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Hannibal, located in Missouri, has experienced notable fluctuations in property crime rates over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, total property crimes decreased significantly from 1,352 to 569, representing a 57.9% reduction. During this same period, the city's population slightly decreased from 20,160 to 19,860, a 1.5% decline.
Burglary incidents in the city have shown a substantial downward trend. In 2010, there were 210 burglaries, which dropped to 64 in 2022, marking a 69.5% decrease. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 10.4 per 1,000 residents in 2010 to 3.2 per 1,000 in 2022. Interestingly, while burglaries decreased overall, the city's share of state burglaries fluctuated. It dropped from 0.65% in 2010 to 0.48% in 2022, but peaked at 0.72% in 2021, indicating that while local efforts may have reduced burglaries, the city's relative contribution to state totals remained somewhat volatile.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the city, also demonstrated a significant decline. Incidents decreased from 1,089 in 2010 to 444 in 2022, a 59.2% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 54.0 in 2010 to 22.4 in 2022. The city's share of state larceny-theft incidents decreased from 0.96% to 0.57% over this period, suggesting that the local reduction outpaced state-wide trends.
Motor vehicle theft showed a more complex pattern. While the number of incidents increased slightly from 53 in 2010 to 61 in 2022, the rate per 1,000 residents actually increased from 2.6 to 3.1 due to the population decrease. However, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts decreased from 0.40% to 0.25%, indicating that the increase was less pronounced than in other parts of the state.
Arson cases in the city fluctuated significantly. From a low of 1 incident in 2012 and 2013, arson peaked at 17 cases in 2015. By 2022, there were 7 reported arsons. The rate per 1,000 residents increased from 0.15 in 2010 to 0.35 in 2022. Notably, the city's share of state arsons rose dramatically from 0.29% in 2010 to 1.14% in 2022, suggesting a disproportionate increase compared to state trends.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong inverse relationship between median income and property crime rates. As median income increased from $42,659 in 2013 to $52,386 in 2022, overall property crime rates declined. Additionally, there's a notable correlation between the percentage of owner-occupied housing and crime rates. As owner occupancy increased from 61% in 2019 to 65% in 2022, property crime rates continued to decrease.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we anticipate a continued overall decline in property crimes. Based on current trends, burglaries and larceny-theft are expected to decrease further, potentially reaching around 50 and 350 incidents respectively by 2029. Motor vehicle theft may stabilize or slightly increase to around 65-70 incidents. Arson cases are harder to predict due to their volatility but may average around 5-8 cases annually.
In summary, Hannibal has made significant strides in reducing property crime over the past decade, particularly in burglary and larceny-theft. The correlation between rising incomes, increased home ownership, and declining crime rates suggests that economic stability plays a crucial role in community safety. However, the slight uptick in motor vehicle thefts and the volatile nature of arson cases indicate areas that may require continued attention and targeted strategies in the coming years.
