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Property Crime Trends in Hanceville, Alabama: A Decade of Decline
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Hanceville, located in Alabama, presents an interesting case study in property crime trends. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes fluctuated, with a notable decrease of 29.8% from 94 incidents in 2010 to 66 in 2022. This decline occurred alongside a modest population growth of 2.05%, from 4,299 in 2010 to 4,387 in 2022.
Burglary rates in the city showed significant variability over the years. In 2010, there were 8 burglaries, which spiked to 49 in 2011, representing a 512.5% increase. However, by 2022, burglaries had decreased to 9, a 12.5% increase from 2010 but an 81.6% decrease from the 2011 peak. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents rose from 1.86 in 2010 to 11.16 in 2011, before falling to 2.05 in 2022. The city's share of state burglaries increased from 0.03% in 2010 to 0.08% in 2022, indicating that while local burglaries decreased, they did not fall as rapidly as the state average.
Larceny-theft incidents displayed a more stable trend. In 2010, there were 78 cases, which decreased to 48 in 2022, a 38.5% reduction. The larceny-theft rate per 1,000 residents declined from 18.14 in 2010 to 10.94 in 2022. Despite this local decrease, the city's percentage of state larceny-thefts remained relatively constant, moving from 0.11% in 2010 to 0.10% in 2022, suggesting that the local trend mirrored the state's overall pattern.
Motor vehicle theft in the city showed fluctuations but ultimately remained stable. There were 8 incidents in 2010, peaking at 16 in 2015, before returning to 9 in 2022, representing a 12.5% increase over the 12-year period. The rate per 1,000 residents went from 1.86 in 2010 to 2.05 in 2022. Notably, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts remained relatively high, starting at 0.13% in 2010 and staying at 0.13% in 2022, indicating that this type of crime remained a persistent issue relative to state trends.
Arson data for the city was largely unavailable, with only two years reporting zero incidents (2011 and 2022). This lack of data makes it impossible to draw meaningful conclusions about arson trends in the city.
Examining correlations between crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. The fluctuations in property crime rates appear to have a weak inverse relationship with median income. For instance, as the median income rose from $32,452 in 2013 to $39,617 in 2022, an increase of 22.1%, the total property crime rate decreased by 34.7% over the same period. However, this correlation is not strong enough to suggest a direct causal relationship.
Applying predictive models based on the available data, it's projected that by 2029 (five years from now), Hanceville may see a further reduction in overall property crime rates. Burglaries could potentially decrease to around 7-8 incidents annually, larceny-theft might stabilize at approximately 45-50 cases per year, and motor vehicle thefts could remain steady at 9-10 incidents annually. These predictions assume that current socioeconomic trends and law enforcement strategies remain relatively consistent.
In conclusion, Hanceville has experienced a general downward trend in property crimes from 2010 to 2022, despite some fluctuations. The most significant improvements were seen in burglary and larceny-theft rates, while motor vehicle theft remained a persistent challenge. These trends, coupled with the city's modest population growth and increasing median income, suggest a gradually improving public safety environment. However, the city's share of state crime rates in certain categories indicates that continued vigilance and targeted strategies may be necessary to further reduce property crime incidents in the coming years.
