Motor vehicle theft trends have been more volatile. From 205 incidents in 2010, the number increased to 290 in 2019 before decreasing to 147 in 2022. This represents a 28.3% overall decrease from 2010 to 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents fluctuated accordingly, from 2.6 in 2010 to 1.9 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts decreased from 1.22% in 2010 to 0.65% in 2022, suggesting that despite some fluctuations, the city has improved its position relative to state-wide trends.

Arson cases in the city have shown a declining trend, albeit with some fluctuations. From 52 incidents in 2010, the number decreased to 22 in 2022, a 57.7% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 0.67 in 2010 to 0.28 in 2022. Interestingly, the city's share of state arson cases increased from 1.9% in 2010 to 2.56% in 2022, indicating that while arson has decreased in the city, it has not decreased as rapidly as in other parts of the state.

Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. The reduction in property crimes coincides with a slight increase in median income, which rose from $50,637 in 2013 to $54,876 in 2022. This suggests that improving economic conditions may have contributed to the decrease in property crimes. Additionally, the city has seen a gradual increase in racial diversity, with the white population decreasing from 85% in 2013 to 77% in 2022, while Hispanic and multiracial populations have increased. This demographic shift coincides with the overall reduction in property crimes, though a direct causal relationship cannot be established without further research.

Applying predictive models based on the current trends, it's projected that by 2029 (five years from now), the city could see further reductions in property crimes. Burglaries could potentially decrease to around 150-180 incidents per year, larceny-theft might drop to 700-750 cases annually, and motor vehicle thefts could stabilize at 120-130 incidents per year. Arson cases are expected to remain low, possibly around 15-20 incidents annually.

In summary, Hamilton has made significant strides in reducing property crime rates across all categories over the past decade. The most notable improvements have been in burglary and larceny-theft, while motor vehicle theft and arson have shown more modest declines. These positive trends, coupled with demographic changes and economic improvements, suggest a generally improving safety situation in the city. However, continued efforts will be necessary to maintain and further improve these trends in the coming years.