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Property Crime Trends in Halstead, Kansas: A Decade of Decline
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Halstead, located in Kansas, presents an intriguing case study in property crime trends. From 2011 to 2022, the total number of property crimes fluctuated significantly, peaking at 76 incidents in 2013 and dropping to a low of 11 in 2019. Over this period, property crimes decreased by 38.1%, from 21 in 2011 to 13 in 2022. Meanwhile, the population grew by 0.73%, from 2,339 in 2011 to 2,356 in 2022, indicating a slight demographic expansion alongside a general decline in property crime.
Burglary trends in the city have shown considerable volatility. The highest number of burglaries was recorded in 2013 with 40 incidents, representing 0.31% of the state's total. By 2022, this had dramatically decreased to just 2 incidents, or 0.03% of the state's burglaries. The burglary rate per 1,000 residents fell from 2.57 in 2011 to 0.85 in 2022, a 66.9% decrease. This significant reduction suggests improved home security measures or more effective law enforcement strategies in preventing break-ins.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the city, also exhibited a downward trend. In 2011, there were 15 incidents (0.03% of state total), which peaked at 39 in 2014 (0.14% of state total), before declining to 9 in 2022 (0.03% of state total). The rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 6.41 in 2011 to 3.82 in 2022, a 40.4% reduction. This decline in petty theft could indicate improved community vigilance or economic factors reducing opportunistic crime.
Motor vehicle theft trends have been relatively stable, with occasional spikes. In 2011, there were no reported incidents, but by 2022, there were 2 cases, representing 0.04% of the state's total. The highest number was recorded in 2020 with 6 incidents (0.24% of state total). The rate per 1,000 residents increased from 0 in 2011 to 0.85 in 2022. While this represents an increase, the numbers remain relatively low, suggesting that vehicle theft is not a major concern in the city.
Arson cases have been sporadic and rare in the city. There were no reported cases in most years, with single incidents reported in 2012, 2016, and 2022. In 2022, the single arson case represented 0.35% of the state's total, a significant proportion given the city's size. The rate per 1,000 residents in 2022 was 0.42, up from 0 in 2011. While infrequent, these incidents highlight the need for continued fire safety awareness and prevention measures.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate inverse relationship between property crime rates and median income. As median income increased from $54,122 in 2013 to $54,083 in 2022, overall property crime rates tended to decrease. This suggests that improved economic conditions may contribute to reduced property crime.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends, it's estimated that by 2029, Halstead could see a further reduction in overall property crime rates. Based on the declining trend observed from 2011 to 2022, we might expect total property crimes to stabilize around 10-15 incidents per year, with burglaries and larceny-theft continuing to decrease slightly, while motor vehicle theft and arson remain at their current low levels or show minimal fluctuation.
In summary, Halstead has experienced a notable overall decrease in property crime from 2011 to 2022, despite a slight population increase. The most significant reductions were seen in burglary and larceny-theft, while motor vehicle theft and arson remained relatively low. The inverse correlation between rising median income and declining property crime rates suggests that economic factors play a role in the city's improving crime statistics. As the city moves forward, maintaining this positive trend will likely depend on continued economic stability, community engagement, and effective law enforcement strategies.
