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Property Crime Trends in Guttenberg, NJ: A Decade of Density and Decline
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Guttenberg, located in New Jersey, presents an intriguing case study in property crime trends. From 2010 to 2020, the city experienced fluctuations in total property crimes, with a notable decrease from 96 incidents in 2010 to 77 in 2020, representing a 19.8% reduction. During this same period, the population grew from 10,965 to 11,578, an increase of 5.6%.
Burglary trends in the city show significant variation over the years. In 2010, there were 29 burglaries, which peaked at 43 in 2012 before declining to 10 in 2020. This represents a 65.5% decrease from 2010 to 2020. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 2.65 in 2010 to 0.86 in 2020. Interestingly, the city's share of state burglaries fluctuated, starting at 0.17% in 2010, peaking at 0.27% in 2017, and ending at 0.18% in 2020. This suggests that while burglaries decreased overall, the city's contribution to state burglaries remained relatively stable.
Larceny-theft incidents showed less dramatic changes but still demonstrated a downward trend. In 2010, there were 62 larceny-thefts, which increased to a high of 83 in 2013 before decreasing to 61 in 2020, representing a slight 1.6% decrease over the decade. The larceny-theft rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 5.65 in 2010 to 5.27 in 2020. The city's share of state larceny-thefts increased from 0.13% in 2010 to 0.20% in 2020, indicating that while local incidents decreased slightly, they became a larger portion of state totals.
Motor vehicle theft remained relatively stable over the decade. There were 5 incidents in 2010, which increased to 7 in 2014 and 2016, before returning to 6 in 2020. This represents a 20% increase from 2010 to 2020. The rate per 1,000 residents increased slightly from 0.46 in 2010 to 0.52 in 2020. Notably, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts more than doubled from 0.05% in 2010 to 0.11% in 2020, suggesting an increased concentration of these crimes in the area relative to the state.
Arson cases in the city were sporadic and infrequent. There were 3 arsons in 2010, dropping to 0 or 1 incident in subsequent years, with no reported arsons from 2014 to 2020. This represents a 100% decrease over the decade. The arson rate per 1,000 residents fell from 0.27 in 2010 to 0 in 2020. The city's share of state arsons fluctuated significantly, from 0.66% in 2010 to 0% in later years, indicating that arson became less of a concern in the city compared to state levels.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate inverse relationship between property crime rates and median income. As median income increased from $61,912 in 2013 to $73,406 in 2020, total property crimes decreased from 112 to 77. Additionally, there seems to be a weak positive correlation between the Hispanic population percentage and property crime rates. As the Hispanic population decreased slightly from 68% in 2013 to 65% in 2020, property crimes also showed a general downward trend.
Applying predictive models based on historical trends, it's projected that by 2029 (5 years from now), Guttenberg may see a further reduction in overall property crimes. Burglaries are expected to continue their downward trend, potentially reaching single digits annually. Larceny-theft is likely to stabilize around 50-55 incidents per year. Motor vehicle theft may remain steady at 5-6 incidents annually, while arson cases are expected to remain rare or nonexistent.
In summary, Guttenberg has shown a general improvement in property crime rates over the past decade, with notable decreases in burglaries and relatively stable trends in other categories. The city's evolving demographic and economic landscape appears to have some influence on these trends, particularly the rising median income. As Guttenberg continues to develop, maintaining vigilance in crime prevention strategies will be crucial to sustain and potentially improve upon these positive trends in property crime reduction.
