Motor vehicle theft in the city showed an overall decrease, from 13 incidents in 2010 to 7 in 2022, a 46.15% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 1.22 in 2010 to 0.44 in 2022, reflecting improved vehicle security or law enforcement efforts. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts fluctuated, peaking at 0.42% in 2016 before decreasing to 0.10% in 2022, indicating that the local reduction outpaced the state average in recent years.

Arson data for the city is limited, with only two years reporting incidents: 4 cases in 2011 and 2 in 2022. This sparse data makes it difficult to identify clear trends, but it suggests that arson is not a prevalent issue in the area. The city's share of state arsons was 0.72% in 2011 and 0.38% in 2022, indicating a potential decrease in the city's contribution to state arson statistics.

Examining correlations between crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. The decrease in property crimes coincided with an increase in population density from 374 per square mile in 2010 to 558 in 2022. Additionally, the percentage of owner-occupied housing units rose from 54% in 2013 to 67% in 2022, which may have contributed to the reduction in property crimes. The racial composition remained relatively stable, with a slight decrease in the white population from 95% in 2019 to 89% in 2022, accompanied by small increases in other racial groups.

Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continued gradual decline in overall property crime rates. Burglaries are projected to stabilize around 25-30 incidents annually, while larceny-theft may continue to decrease, potentially reaching around 300 incidents per year. Motor vehicle theft is expected to remain low, possibly fluctuating between 5-10 incidents annually. Arson cases are likely to remain rare, with occasional incidents not exceeding 1-2 per year.

In conclusion, Gulf Shores has demonstrated a positive trend in property crime reduction despite significant population growth. The most notable improvements were seen in burglary and motor vehicle theft rates, while larceny-theft, though decreased, remains the predominant property crime concern. These trends, coupled with increasing home ownership and population density, suggest a community becoming more stable and secure. However, ongoing vigilance and community-based crime prevention strategies will be crucial to maintaining and improving upon these positive developments in the coming years.