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Property Crime Trends in Great Falls, Montana: A Decade of Fluctuating Patterns
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Great Falls, Montana, a city known for its rich history and natural beauty, has experienced notable fluctuations in property crime rates over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes in the city increased by 2.6%, rising from 2,776 to 2,708 incidents. During this same period, the population grew by 7.9%, from 62,186 to 67,091 residents, indicating that crime rates have not kept pace with population growth.
Burglary trends in the city have shown a significant decline over the years. In 2010, there were 308 burglaries, which decreased to 236 by 2022, representing a 23.4% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents fell from 4.95 in 2010 to 3.52 in 2022, a 28.9% decrease. The city's share of state burglaries fluctuated, starting at 16.59% in 2010, peaking at 18.81% in 2019, and settling at 15.1% in 2022. This downward trend suggests improved home security measures or more effective law enforcement strategies targeting burglaries.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the city, showed a slight decrease over the study period. In 2010, there were 2,343 larceny-theft incidents, which dropped to 2,290 by 2022, a 2.3% decrease. However, when accounting for population growth, the rate per 1,000 residents decreased more substantially from 37.68 in 2010 to 34.13 in 2022, a 9.4% reduction. The city's proportion of state larceny-thefts remained relatively stable, ranging from 15.16% to 21.83% over the years, indicating that this type of crime remains a persistent issue relative to state figures.
Motor vehicle theft trends reveal a concerning increase. In 2010, there were 125 motor vehicle thefts, which rose to 182 by 2022, a 45.6% increase. The rate per 1,000 residents also increased from 2.01 in 2010 to 2.71 in 2022, a 34.8% rise. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts fluctuated, ranging from 8.38% to 18.98%, settling at 11.67% in 2022. This upward trend suggests a need for targeted interventions to address this specific type of property crime.
Arson incidents in the city have shown volatility over the years. In 2010, there were 6 arson cases, which doubled to 12 by 2022, a 100% increase. The rate per 1,000 residents increased from 0.10 in 2010 to 0.18 in 2022, an 80% rise. The city's proportion of state arsons fluctuated significantly, ranging from 7.58% to 26.6%, ending at 13.48% in 2022. While the numbers are relatively small, the upward trend and high variability warrant attention from law enforcement and fire prevention services.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. The rise in motor vehicle thefts appears to coincide with the increase in population density, which grew from 2,690 people per square mile in 2010 to 2,902 in 2022. Additionally, there seems to be a correlation between the slight increase in median income (from $52,468 in 2013 to $57,107 in 2022) and the overall decrease in burglaries, suggesting that improved economic conditions may contribute to lower burglary rates.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a potential continuation of current patterns. Burglaries are expected to continue their downward trend, potentially reaching around 200 incidents annually. Larceny-theft is predicted to remain relatively stable, hovering around 2,300 cases per year. Motor vehicle thefts may continue to rise, possibly reaching 220-230 incidents annually. Arson cases are projected to remain volatile but may stabilize around 15-20 incidents per year.
In summary, Great Falls has experienced mixed trends in property crime over the past decade. While burglaries and larceny-thefts have shown encouraging decreases relative to population growth, the rise in motor vehicle thefts and the volatility in arson cases present ongoing challenges. These trends, coupled with the city's changing demographics and economic conditions, underscore the need for targeted crime prevention strategies and community engagement initiatives to maintain and improve public safety in the coming years.
