Motor vehicle theft in the city has been erratic. From 1 incident in 2010, it peaked at 5 in 2019, before dropping to 0 in 2020. The rate per 1,000 people reached its highest at 1.94 in 2019 but fell to 0 in 2020. The city's percentage of state motor vehicle thefts varied, peaking at 0.04% in 2019 before dropping to 0% in 2020. This volatility may indicate the presence of transient criminal activity or successful short-term prevention measures.

Arson data for the city shows no reported incidents from 2010 to 2020, consistently representing 0% of state arson cases. This absence of arson cases is a positive aspect of the city's crime profile, suggesting effective fire prevention and community safety measures.

Examining correlations, there appears to be a relationship between property crime trends and median income. As median income increased from $28,766 in 2013 to $41,461.50 in 2020, total property crimes also rose from 10 to 32 incidents. This unexpected correlation might suggest that rising incomes could be attracting more property crime to the area.

Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends, it's estimated that by 2029 (five years from now), Graysville may see a further increase in property crimes to approximately 40-45 incidents annually if current trends continue. This projection assumes consistent population and economic patterns.

In summary, Graysville has experienced a notable increase in property crimes, particularly larceny-theft, despite a slight population decrease. The rise in median income correlating with increased property crime presents a complex challenge for local law enforcement and community leaders. As the city moves forward, targeted strategies to address larceny-theft and the fluctuating rates of burglary and motor vehicle theft will be crucial in improving overall community safety and maintaining the positive trend of zero arson incidents.