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Property Crime Trends in Grant, Alabama: A Decade of Improvement
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Grant, Alabama, a small city with an area of 1.85 square miles, has experienced notable fluctuations in property crime rates over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes decreased from 24 to 18, representing a 25% reduction. During this same period, the population saw a slight decrease from 8,292 in 2010 to 8,140 in 2022, a decline of about 1.8%.
Burglary trends in the city have shown significant volatility. In 2010, there were 5 reported burglaries, which increased to a peak of 29 in 2014, before declining back to 5 in 2022. This represents a 480% increase from 2010 to 2014, followed by an 82.8% decrease from 2014 to 2022. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents increased from 0.60 in 2010 to 3.74 in 2014, then decreased to 0.61 in 2022. The city's share of state burglaries fluctuated, peaking at 0.12% in 2014 and settling at 0.04% in 2022, indicating an overall improvement in the city's burglary situation relative to the state.
Larceny-theft incidents showed a different pattern. Starting at 16 cases in 2010, they reached a high of 40 in 2014, before decreasing to 12 in 2022. This represents a 150% increase from 2010 to 2014, followed by a 70% decrease from 2014 to 2022. The larceny-theft rate per 1,000 residents rose from 1.93 in 2010 to 5.16 in 2014, then fell to 1.47 in 2022. The city's proportion of state larceny-thefts remained relatively stable, ranging from 0.01% to 0.05% over the years, suggesting that local trends generally mirrored state-wide patterns.
Motor vehicle theft in the city has shown considerable variation. From 3 cases in 2010, it peaked at 8 in 2012, then decreased to 1 in 2022. This represents a 166.7% increase from 2010 to 2012, followed by an 87.5% decrease from 2012 to 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents increased from 0.36 in 2010 to 0.97 in 2012, then decreased to 0.12 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts fluctuated significantly, reaching a high of 0.11% in 2012 before dropping to 0.01% in 2022, indicating a substantial improvement relative to state trends.
Arson data for the city is limited, with most years showing "No Data Available." The only recorded data points are 0 cases in both 2011 and 2022, making it difficult to discern any meaningful trends or conduct a comprehensive analysis for this crime category.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. The decline in property crimes from 2014 to 2022 coincided with a period of increasing median income, which rose from $47,090 in 2014 to $52,364 in 2022. This suggests a potential inverse relationship between economic prosperity and property crime rates. Additionally, the percentage of owner-occupied housing units increased from 76% in 2018 to 87% in 2022, corresponding with the continued decrease in property crimes during this period. This could indicate that higher rates of homeownership might contribute to reduced property crime rates.
Applying predictive models based on the observed trends, it's projected that property crime rates in Grant will continue to decrease over the next five years, potentially reaching around 12-15 incidents annually by 2029. This forecast assumes that the current socio-economic trends, such as increasing median income and homeownership rates, will persist.
In summary, Grant has experienced a general downward trend in property crimes over the past decade, with significant fluctuations in specific categories. The most notable improvements have been in burglary and motor vehicle theft rates. These positive trends, coupled with improving economic indicators, suggest that Grant is making progress in enhancing public safety and community well-being.
