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Property Crime Trends in Grandview, Missouri: A Tale of Mixed Progress
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Grandview, Missouri, presents an intriguing case study in property crime trends over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes fluctuated, starting at 944 in 2010 and ending at 907 in 2022, representing a 3.92% decrease. During this same period, the population grew from 24,414 to 25,921, an increase of 6.17%.
Burglary trends in the city show a significant decline over time. In 2010, there were 226 burglaries, which decreased to 68 in 2022, a 69.91% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 people fell from 9.26 in 2010 to 2.62 in 2022. Interestingly, the city's share of state burglaries fluctuated, dropping from 0.7% in 2010 to 0.51% in 2022, with a peak of 1.26% in 2020. This suggests that while burglaries have decreased overall, the city's contribution to state burglaries has remained relatively stable, with occasional spikes.
Larceny theft trends showed more variability. In 2010, there were 616 larceny thefts, which increased to 654 in 2022, a 6.17% rise. The rate per 1,000 people remained relatively stable, going from 25.23 in 2010 to 25.23 in 2022. However, the city's share of state larceny thefts increased from 0.54% in 2010 to 0.84% in 2022, indicating that larceny theft in the city grew at a faster rate than the state average.
Motor vehicle theft displayed a concerning upward trend. In 2010, there were 102 motor vehicle thefts, which rose to 185 in 2022, an 81.37% increase. The rate per 1,000 people increased from 4.18 in 2010 to 7.14 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts also rose from 0.77% in 2010 to 0.76% in 2022, with a peak of 1.18% in 2020, suggesting that this crime type has become a more significant issue for the city relative to the state.
Arson trends showed volatility but an overall decrease. In 2010, there were 9 arsons, which decreased to 7 in 2022, a 22.22% reduction. The rate per 1,000 people fell from 0.37 in 2010 to 0.27 in 2022. The city's share of state arsons increased from 0.87% in 2010 to 1.14% in 2022, indicating that while arsons decreased in the city, they decreased at a slower rate than the state average.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a relationship between the rise in motor vehicle thefts and the decline in home ownership rates. The percent of owner-occupied housing fell from 59% in 2013 to 50% in 2022, while motor vehicle thefts increased. Additionally, the slight increase in median income from $47,014 in 2013 to $49,779 in 2022 did not seem to significantly impact overall property crime rates.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we can expect: Burglaries to continue declining, potentially reaching around 40 incidents per year. Larceny thefts to remain relatively stable, fluctuating around 650-700 incidents annually. Motor vehicle thefts to continue increasing, possibly reaching 250-300 incidents per year. Arsons to remain low but volatile, likely staying under 10 incidents per year.
In conclusion, Grandview has seen a mixed picture in property crime trends over the past decade. While burglaries and arsons have decreased, larceny thefts have remained stable, and motor vehicle thefts have increased significantly. These trends, combined with demographic changes, suggest a shifting landscape of property crime that will require targeted strategies to address, particularly in the area of motor vehicle theft prevention.
