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Property Crime Trends in Gordon, Georgia: A Decade of Fluctuating Rates
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Gordon, located in Georgia, presents an intriguing case study in property crime trends. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes fluctuated significantly, with a notable decrease from 29 in 2010 to 24 in 2022, representing a 17.24% reduction. During this same period, the population experienced modest growth, increasing from 2,736 in 2010 to 2,764 in 2022, a 1.02% rise.
Burglary trends in the city show considerable volatility. In 2010, there were 6 burglaries, which dropped to zero in 2014 but then spiked to 11 in 2017. By 2022, the number stood at 9. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents fluctuated from 2.19 in 2010 to a peak of 4.22 in 2017, settling at 3.26 in 2022. Notably, the city's share of state burglaries increased significantly, from 0.02% in 2010 to 0.1% in 2022, indicating a growing concentration of this crime type relative to the state.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the city, displayed a general downward trend. From 22 incidents in 2010, it peaked at 45 in 2011 before declining to 14 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 8.04 in 2010 to 5.07 in 2022. However, the city's contribution to state larceny-theft remained relatively stable, fluctuating between 0.01% and 0.04% throughout the period.
Motor vehicle theft in the city remained low throughout the studied period. From 1 incident in 2010, it fluctuated between 0 and 3 annually, ending at 1 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents ranged from 0 to 1.15, with 0.36 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts remained minimal, never exceeding 0.03%.
Arson incidents were consistently reported as zero throughout the entire period from 2010 to 2022, indicating either an absence of this crime or potential underreporting.
Examining correlations, a strong inverse relationship is observed between property crime rates and median income. As median income decreased from $47,886 in 2013 to $33,925 in 2019, property crimes increased from 22 to 37 incidents in 2017. This suggests economic factors may play a role in property crime trends.
Additionally, there appears to be a correlation between racial demographics and property crime rates. As the Black population percentage increased from 37% in 2013 to 52% in 2018, property crimes also saw an uptick, peaking at 37 incidents in 2017. Conversely, as the White population percentage decreased from 58% to 44% during the same period, property crimes increased.
Applying predictive models based on these trends, it's forecasted that by 2029 (five years from now), Gordon may experience a slight increase in property crimes, potentially reaching around 30 incidents annually. Burglaries are expected to remain the most volatile category, potentially fluctuating between 5 and 12 incidents per year. Larceny-theft is predicted to stabilize around 15-20 incidents annually, while motor vehicle theft is likely to remain low, not exceeding 2-3 incidents per year.
In summary, Gordon has experienced a complex evolution in its property crime landscape from 2010 to 2022. While overall property crime has decreased, individual categories show varying trends. The city's increasing share of state burglaries, coupled with demographic and economic shifts, suggests a changing crime dynamic that warrants attention. These trends underscore the importance of targeted crime prevention strategies and community-based interventions to address the underlying factors contributing to property crime in Gordon.
