Motor vehicle theft trends showed a more complex pattern. While the number of incidents increased slightly from 45 in 2010 to 50 in 2022, the rate per 1,000 people remained relatively stable, changing from 2.81 to 2.79. However, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts decreased from 0.43% to 0.28%, suggesting that while local numbers remained steady, state-wide incidents may have increased at a faster rate.

Arson cases in the city have been relatively low and inconsistent over the years. The numbers fluctuated between 0 and 2 cases annually, with no clear trend. The rate per 1,000 people remained below 0.12 throughout the period. The city's contribution to state arson cases varied widely, ranging from 0% to 0.33%, reflecting the sporadic nature of these incidents.

Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. As the population density increased from 1,110 per square mile in 2010 to 1,243 in 2022, property crime rates decreased, suggesting that increased urbanization did not lead to higher crime rates in this case. The median income rose from $57,386 in 2013 to $64,671 in 2022, coinciding with the overall decrease in property crimes, potentially indicating that improved economic conditions contributed to lower crime rates.

Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continued gradual decrease in overall property crime rates. Based on the current trends, we might expect to see burglary rates stabilize around 1.5 per 1,000 people, larceny theft rates potentially dropping to about 10 per 1,000 people, and motor vehicle theft rates remaining steady at around 2.8 per 1,000 people.

In summary, Goodlettsville has demonstrated a remarkable improvement in property crime rates over the past decade, particularly in burglary and larceny theft. This positive trend, coupled with population growth and increasing median income, paints a picture of a city that has successfully managed its expansion while enhancing public safety. The forecasted continuation of these trends suggests a promising outlook for the city's future in terms of property crime prevention and overall community well-being.